Challenge by the Bay RYC/RCC/Y8

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, October 12, 2024 at 2:00 PM

Power Sports Academy - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GRIGORIEV Roman	-	-	1%	6%	27%	52%	15%
2	TANG Morgan	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	52%
3	HRISTOV Nickolas	-	1%	11%	37%	43%	7%
3	HWANG Hagan	-	-	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
5	LI Ryan	-	-	4%	22%	44%	29%
6	VENKATRAMAN Sushil	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
6	DUFF Michael	-	4%	25%	45%	24%	2%
8	LIU Clarence	-	7%	30%	39%	20%	4%
9	TAN Daniel	2%	13%	30%	32%	18%	4%	-
10	KIM Eric	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
11	WANG James	-	2%	15%	38%	36%	10%
12	RAMBHIA Smit	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	9%
13	FISCHER Noel	-	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	8%
14	CHAN Troy Devon Chan	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
15	YUE Ivan	-	2%	15%	38%	35%	10%
16	MASAKI Alex	-	-	2%	17%	44%	37%
17	LEE Kyle	1%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
18	CHANG William	-	1%	8%	33%	45%	13%	1%
19	GOTTSCHALK Theodore	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
20	WU Dawei	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
21	TABANCAY Cole	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	14%	2%
22	LI Sky	26%	45%	24%	5%	-	-	-
23	PARK Jayden	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
24	UDAYGIRI Adi	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
25	CAO Chuck	1%	9%	31%	37%	19%	3%
26	LUO Gavin	4%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%
27	FAN Yuen	1%	15%	39%	33%	11%	1%
28	FAN Yuchen	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
29	DESAI Arthav	-	2%	14%	36%	35%	12%	1%
30	IRVINE Cooper	6%	29%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
31	DUBIN Jake	22%	52%	22%	4%	-	-
32	GUAN Dylan	21%	43%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
33	ZHANG Hanzhi	5%	24%	40%	25%	6%	1%	-
34	MALLARD Arthur	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
35	HULL Brandtley	32%	45%	19%	3%	-	-
36	WU August	4%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
37	BELHE Hridhaan	4%	19%	33%	28%	13%	3%	-
38	SCHILLA Max	14%	44%	32%	9%	1%	-
39	YUAN Alan	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
40	BODO John	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
41	YU Albert	46%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-
42	DOUGLAS Milo	48%	41%	10%	1%	-	-
43	LIN Rongcheng Noah	26%	48%	22%	4%	-	-
44	KIM Connor	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-
45	BLACK Conall	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.