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Div II Women's Foil

Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 11:30 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	STUTCHBURY Carolina J.	-	-	5%	26%	45%	24%
2	JONES LONGENBACH Melanie	-	3%	19%	46%	32%
3	XU Christine	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
3	SCHATZ Kristina J.	-	25%	45%	25%	4%
5	MING YUE	-	5%	25%	44%	24%	2%
6	VEERKAMP Molly	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
7	WANG Ellen	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
8	SHANG Andrea	-	25%	46%	25%	4%
9	NARANG Maya	-	7%	28%	40%	22%	3%
10	HOLLE Aviella S.	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
11	SHEN Sophia	-	3%	18%	43%	33%	3%
12	SHEN Annabel	1%	8%	25%	36%	25%	6%
13	YE Catherine	8%	35%	40%	16%	2%	-
14	YU Jaime L.	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	3%
15	SADAN Jordan E.	-	7%	31%	44%	19%
16	KANIUK Rachel	7%	37%	38%	15%	3%	-
17	DU Hannah	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
18	WU Irene M.	-	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	13%
19	SHAW Kayla M.	-	-	7%	32%	43%	17%
20	ZIMBALIST Lila	-	1%	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
21	LI Meilin	-	4%	21%	40%	29%	6%
22	RASO Sofia G.	-	-	-	5%	34%	60%
23	PAGES Melanie	1%	23%	45%	25%	5%	-
24	PAVE Claire	2%	17%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
25	DAVIDSON Sammy C.	-	5%	23%	40%	25%	6%	1%
26	ZHANG Rongrui	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
27	LIU Sophia	1%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3%
28	CLEVENGER Magdalena	4%	20%	36%	29%	11%	1%
29	DRANOVSKY Dasha	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	14%
30	KURCHIN Ekaterina Y.	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
31	HUANG Natalie	3%	15%	32%	32%	16%	3%
32	ZHEN Ellen	30%	42%	22%	5%	-	-
33	NICOU Melina	2%	42%	44%	12%	1%	-
34	KARKHANIS Maya	14%	37%	33%	14%	2%	-
35	TOBIN Brean	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-
36	WERBACH Esther	13%	33%	33%	16%	4%	-
37	BHOGAL Sukhneet	25%	46%	24%	5%	-	-	-
38	YANIV Liya	98%	2%	-	-	-
39	SILVER Anna	31%	46%	20%	3%	-	-	-
40	ADAMS KIM Natalie	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	2%
41	HUSAIN Amber	9%	34%	40%	15%	2%	-
42	MORO Diana	91%	9%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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