San Diego Senior Cup #2 w/ Vet Foil

Senior Mixed Epee

Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 12:00 PM

San Diego Jewish Academy - San Diego, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SODERBERG Alex Z.	-	-	-	2%	19%	80%
2	HIGGINS Branford	-	-	3%	19%	45%	32%
3	BAILEY Creston P.	-	-	2%	17%	45%	36%
3	ROBITZSKI Daniel A.	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
5	LEE Royce	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	< 1%
6	JOHNSTON Conner S.	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
7	FIECHTNER Thomas A.	-	-	5%	26%	46%	23%
8	THOMAS Michael	-	-	15%	50%	30%	5%
9	HILLSTROM Nathan	-	3%	18%	41%	31%	7%
10	LUNDE Drew	3%	23%	49%	21%	3%	-
11	ALEXANDER Charles	-	1%	9%	35%	41%	13%
12	NORTON Henry	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
13	ZAROTSKY Ronald	-	5%	22%	41%	29%	3%
14	DILLON Anik	5%	24%	40%	26%	6%	-
15	SOLONOVICH Maksim	13%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
16	CHARETTE Matthew	7%	29%	40%	20%	3%	-
17	BANGAYAN Anthony	6%	44%	37%	12%	2%	-
18	SETTE Alessandro	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%	2%
19	HARRIS Roark S.	-	1%	8%	32%	43%	16%
20	HEWITT Frank F.	-	4%	22%	41%	28%	6%
21	NEISINGH Isabelle	11%	40%	36%	12%	1%	-
22	GUESNARD Maelig	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
23	KURITZ Marc M.	-	5%	23%	41%	26%	5%
24	BARTON Isabelle	12%	70%	17%	1%	-	-
25	CHAN Allison M.	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
26	SAMIMI Sina	14%	65%	19%	1%	-	-
27	ADDLEMAN Joshua	-	7%	56%	31%	5%	-
28	ROLAND Nikolas	28%	57%	14%	1%	-	-
29	GAYLORD Ronan	8%	33%	39%	17%	2%	-
30	AGUIRRE Karla	64%	30%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.