GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 12:00 PM

MSA Fieldhouse - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BOSS Evan	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
2	ELTERMAN Lev	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%	1%
3	REAUME Nate	-	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
3	KOENIGSKNECHT Julian	1%	5%	18%	31%	29%	14%	2%
5	SALLAM omar	-	-	-	4%	25%	46%	25%
6	UNG Kei	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
7	HAUCK Samuel J.	-	2%	9%	27%	37%	22%	3%
8	EVERT Todd	-	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	19%
9	TIMEK Jan	1%	15%	43%	31%	8%	1%	-
10	LEHNER Brian	-	9%	29%	35%	20%	5%	1%
11	ULMAN Nathan	-	3%	13%	28%	32%	19%	4%
12	LIU Quincy	-	5%	26%	42%	22%	5%	-
13	WILLIAMS Derek	-	-	1%	7%	34%	42%	16%
14	SEABLOOM Jack	25%	43%	26%	6%	-	-	-
15	WANG Kaiyan	4%	18%	32%	29%	14%	3%	-
16	ALI Adam	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
17	FRANGER Jeff	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	7%
18	DALTON Matthew	-	-	1%	10%	34%	40%	15%
19	ARNEMANN Jonas	-	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
20	JANYSKA Allen	2%	10%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
21	TURNER Joshua	-	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	18%
22	STREETER Oliver	4%	19%	32%	28%	13%	3%	-
23	TATE Liam	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
24	SAYLOR Nathaniel	-	1%	7%	21%	35%	28%	8%
25	VELDTMAN Gruschen	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
26	BAGDONAS Olivier	7%	26%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
27	LARSON Vaughn	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
28	BROUGHAM Brice	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-	-
28	SAYLOR Henry	13%	38%	35%	13%	1%	-	-
30	APANASEWICZ Dan	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
31	HERDMAN Julian	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%	1%	-
32	PENG Ethan	25%	47%	24%	4%	-	-	-
33	VERWORN Jonathan	11%	30%	33%	19%	6%	1%	-
34	SISON John	42%	46%	11%	1%	-	-	-
35	WESTON Michael	81%	18%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.