GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 3:00 PM

MSA Fieldhouse - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SWOPE Farren	-	-	-	2%	12%	42%	44%
2	OS Danielle	-	1%	8%	35%	42%	15%
3	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	41%
3	MUMMANENI Samyuta	-	-	-	3%	39%	58%
5	SAMALA Reese	-	-	3%	17%	38%	35%	7%
6	HARRIS Parker	-	-	1%	7%	27%	47%	19%
7	HU Sophie	-	-	6%	31%	44%	18%
8	TAN Dorathy	-	-	1%	10%	58%	31%
9	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	-	2%	14%	38%	37%	10%
10	KNAPP Isabella	-	-	3%	17%	40%	33%	7%
11	DONG Iris	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
12	LIN Kenzie	1%	7%	26%	37%	23%	5%
13	HUANG Natalie	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
14	DESERANNO Seren	-	-	4%	24%	46%	27%
14	FRASER Morgan	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%
16	KOSCIK-AQUINO Emily	1%	5%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
17	SUN Nicole	-	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
18	DHALIWAL Seerat	7%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
19	KOZUB Joslyn	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
20	ZHANG Selina	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	3%	-
21	YIN Emily	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
22	PARANJAPE Ojasvi	3%	18%	42%	33%	4%	-
23	LIN Athena	12%	39%	38%	11%	-	-
24	REDEMANN Reagan	16%	43%	33%	7%	1%	-
25	MARTIN Sloan	-	3%	18%	36%	32%	11%
26	LEE Eun-Hae	9%	35%	40%	14%	1%	-
27	HUANG Emma	3%	18%	35%	31%	11%	1%	-
28	HEWITT Madison	6%	28%	40%	21%	4%	-	-
29	ZHOU Jolena	23%	45%	27%	5%	-	-
30	WANG Esther	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
31	ZOLDAN Nolabelle	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%
32	VANDEVEN Ingrid	2%	17%	39%	31%	10%	1%	-
33	SKJEI Josephine	16%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
34	YARLAGADDA Smaya	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-	-
35	MARTIN Avery	25%	46%	24%	5%	1%	-
36	PETERSON Penelope	32%	44%	20%	3%	-	-
37	LYNCH Kathryn	20%	44%	30%	6%	-	-
38	KU Amanda	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-
39	GENNARO Juliana	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.