Ultimate Fencing Cup RYC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 12:00 PM

John J. Moore Athletics and Fitness Center - Jersey City, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NING Miranda	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	36%
2	KAKANI Aditi	-	-	1%	4%	19%	41%	35%
3	JIANG chenxi	1%	6%	23%	40%	27%	3%
3	JU Jennifer	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
5	RAJPUT Mahek	-	1%	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
6	LAW Mila	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	28%	8%
7	ZHANG Audrey	-	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	4%
8	GOPU Jyothirvida	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	14%	2%
9	FURMAN Elizabeth	-	1%	5%	17%	32%	32%	13%
10	XU Mulan	-	-	4%	15%	33%	34%	14%
11	HOWARD Katherine	-	3%	14%	31%	34%	16%	2%
12	MISHIMA Olivia	2%	13%	31%	33%	16%	4%	-
13	HAN Emma	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	5%
14	QI Chelsie	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
15	SAJJA Anwita	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
16	BOUTSIKARIS Asha	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
17	ALLIEVI Simone	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	3%
18	WARD Imani	1%	7%	21%	32%	26%	11%	2%
19	DONE Kennedy	6%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
20	PATEL Aria	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
21	YOON Cora	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
22	LEE Zoe	4%	18%	32%	29%	14%	4%	-
23	FAN Olivia	2%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	1%
24	CHOI Noah	16%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
25	RAZAVI Suri	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
26	SONKU Mira	-	2%	11%	26%	33%	21%	5%
27	CHANG Emma	1%	9%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
28	KUO Stella	2%	10%	26%	32%	22%	7%	1%
29	WINTON Lyra	5%	20%	33%	27%	12%	3%	-
30	ECCLESTONE Tara	19%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
31	SHERPURI Ananya	3%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
32	ZHAO Rachel	5%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
33	WILLIAMS Valentina	20%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
34	WANG Hailie	12%	33%	34%	16%	4%	-
35	LI Juliana	7%	23%	33%	25%	10%	2%	-
36	WANG Katherine	9%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%	-
37	CARACCIOLO Emma	25%	41%	25%	8%	1%	-	-
38	LOPATINA Anastasiia	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
39	MISHIMA Quinn	27%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
40	PATEL Agena	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
41	LUO MAOSHUEN	4%	22%	36%	27%	9%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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