South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Intercontinental - Los Angeles Hotel - Los Angeles, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WU Jessica	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
2	GIERAT-KATZ Izabella	-	-	-	5%	25%	44%	25%
3	MANDAP Alessandra	-	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
3	MAI Mailan	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
5	FU Shannon	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
6	ZHAO Yanning	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	8%
7	LICHTENFELD Naomi	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%	-
8	MIAO Anthea	2%	14%	35%	35%	12%	2%	-
9	KOU Cynthia	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
10	ARNOLD Evangeline	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	20%	2%
11	SCANLAN Alina Nev	-	4%	15%	31%	31%	16%	3%
12	LU Chloe	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
13	RASHID Summer	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	23%	4%
14	LEE Adelynn	1%	6%	25%	41%	23%	4%
15	PAK Ella	18%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-	-
16	RADOV Una	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
17	KIM Vivian	-	-	3%	15%	38%	34%	10%
18	FISCHBEIN Quinley	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
19	LI Chloe	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
20	UEMURA Lyllia	13%	33%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
21	VOO Evelyn	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
22	SUN Joanna	4%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
23	SHERMAN Olivia	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	4%
24	RAPTIS Layla	14%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-
25	ROBLES Claudia	-	2%	13%	36%	39%	10%
26	AGARWAL Keya	26%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
27	CHO Jacey	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%	1%
28	DEKERMANJI kate	13%	41%	35%	10%	1%	-	-
29	YOON Claire	48%	38%	12%	2%	-	-	-
30	YIP Allison	-	4%	18%	32%	30%	13%	2%
31	LI Carlie	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
32	FLYNN Kensington	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
33	GRAZIANO Josephine	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
34	LU Chu	6%	23%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
35	PARKE Jaime	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-	-
36	WANG Su	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
37	LI Wan-Tao	9%	32%	39%	17%	3%	-
38	CHAE Avery	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
39	LUCENA Yaretzi	3%	19%	35%	28%	12%	3%	-
40	LI Jennifer	1%	12%	33%	36%	15%	2%	-
41	CHAI Serena	1%	17%	49%	27%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.