Freehold Fencing - January Open Foil

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 11:00 AM

Freehold Fencing Academy - Freehold, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHANNON Jack	-	2%	13%	37%	36%	11%	1%
2	AKYAMAC Bora	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
3	MAK Collin Chun Shing	-	1%	10%	38%	42%	9%
3	HAN Alexander	-	4%	22%	41%	27%	5%	-
5	BELOKON Sammy	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	25%	3%
6	LYNCH Owen	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	29%
7	WONG Jacob	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	10%
8	GOGUEN-COMPAGNONI Nicholas	-	-	-	1%	8%	40%	51%
9	ZAPPALA Nikolai	2%	17%	40%	31%	9%	1%	-
10	BLACK Zach	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	14%
11	JANNEY Jonathan	-	2%	14%	41%	35%	8%
12	ARANA Massimo	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
13	FALCONE Jack	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
14	CHEN Sophie	-	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%
15	NABI Masoud	-	-	1%	6%	27%	48%	18%
16	NIECHWADOWICZ Michael	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
17	STURGIS Zachary	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
18	OLSON Stephen	-	-	1%	10%	41%	48%
19	KOVACS Harrison	9%	36%	41%	13%	1%	-
20	GORLOVITZKI Amitai	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	7%	-
21	TANG xianchi	-	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	3%
22	LIN Qianzhong	11%	36%	36%	14%	3%	-	-
23	MURPHY Damian	2%	13%	34%	34%	15%	2%
24	EZEKIEL Nathan	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
25	D'ALONZO Jake	42%	43%	13%	1%	-	-
26	LEONG Samuel	24%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-
27	YANG David H.	6%	26%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
28	XU Lucas	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-
29	POLEPALLI Vinil	11%	43%	34%	10%	1%	-	-
30	SORSAIA John	13%	42%	35%	9%	1%	-
31	BEKIYANTS Elizabeth	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%	-
32	SCHATZLE Jack	31%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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