SoCal Scholastic Fencing League Individual Foil #2

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, February 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Chaminade High School - West Hills, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHOU Shawn	-	-	-	1%	7%	32%	60%
2	PARK Kaiden	-	3%	15%	30%	32%	16%	3%
3	FOY Grant	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
3	LEE Abin	-	-	2%	12%	36%	40%	11%
5	TRAN Andrew	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
6	LEE Colin	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
7	RAMOS Jonah	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
8	BELTRANSOLORZANO Johan	-	2%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%
9	RICHTER Alexander	10%	30%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
10	CHENG Alvin	8%	27%	34%	22%	8%	1%	-
11	WARD MADS	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
11	LEE Lucas	1%	5%	18%	33%	30%	12%	1%
13	CABATO Luca	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
14	YOUABIAN Liam	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-
15	MITCHELL Kallum	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	3%	-
16	NANTAMANASIKARN Ken	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	2%
17	GREENBERG Felix	-	-	2%	9%	28%	40%	21%
18	ZHANG Justin	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	2%
19	KONO Kyle	1%	6%	19%	33%	28%	12%	2%
20	ROCHKIND Ethan	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
21	HAN-SERVADIO Harrison	-	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	18%
22	BONTHA Dhruv	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
23	ROBINSON Dax	-	1%	10%	29%	38%	19%	3%
23	WILLIAMS Charlie	-	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
25	MARINACCIO Leo	-	1%	8%	23%	34%	26%	8%
26	JADIA Arnav	19%	39%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
27	FERGUSON Jesse	1%	5%	18%	31%	29%	13%	2%
28	KARKLIN Gregory	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
29	ZANDPOUR Wesley	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	6%	-
30	BLAICH FLAUM Moses	1%	12%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
31	POLLARD Jackson	-	2%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
32	WILSON Elliott	12%	33%	33%	16%	4%	1%	-
33	MAAS James	17%	46%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
34	URCIS Julian	5%	21%	35%	27%	11%	2%	-
35	RUTSTEIN Isaac	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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