Battle of the Bay Epee Opens

Senior Women's Épée

Sunday, February 9, 2025 at 2:00 PM

The Fencing Center - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Ariel	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	13%
2	PACHECO Carys	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	7%	1%
3	XU Jessica	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
3	SCHOR Elisabeth	-	-	4%	20%	41%	29%	6%
5	HANKINS Morgan	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
6	HEPLER Sarah	-	-	-	2%	16%	43%	38%
7	HOFMAN Haejung	-	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	20%
8	CHIEM Karen	-	-	2%	13%	36%	38%	12%
9	SUN Karolyn	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%	-
10	CHUNG Penelope	-	2%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
11	SALISTRA Emilia	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
12	BUCA Nora	1%	10%	33%	37%	16%	3%	-
13	YUNG Bethany	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-
14	GILLIS-PADE Neallie	16%	35%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
15	ENRILE Erica	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%
16	MADRID Maureen	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
17	CHIOU-WILLIAMS Matea	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
18	KROTZ Gemma	10%	35%	35%	16%	3%	-
19	FISCHBEIN Quinley	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	-
20	GIERAT-KATZ Izabella	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
21	ZU Jacqueline	30%	43%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
22	DALEY Keira	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
23	BUDMAN Ava	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
24	BLANCO Ariia	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	2%
25	TESLENKO Ekaterina	42%	43%	14%	2%	-	-	-
26	GURROLA Michal	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
27	SMITH Marissa	18%	45%	29%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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