Midwest RYC/RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Sunday, February 9, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Canlan Sports Lake Barrington - Barrington, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ZIEGLER John	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
2	BORISENKO Samuel	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	15%
3	KARNAS Karol	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
3	GRAVES Lawson	-	3%	17%	41%	31%	7%
5	GLEN Ethan	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	1%
6	LOISEAU Oscar	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
7	GINZBURG Adam	-	-	4%	19%	43%	33%
8	BARFORD Giovanni	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
9	SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
10	LEHNER Brian	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-
11	ROSADO Balthazar Francisco	2%	16%	37%	32%	11%	1%
12	HUANG Kenneth	3%	19%	37%	31%	10%
13	STOKER Elliott	25%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
14	MCDOWELL Will	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
15	COHEN Henry	18%	39%	31%	11%	1%
16	WILLIAMS Logan	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
17	CHEN zhuoyang	-	-	5%	26%	45%	24%
18	SERAFYM Damian	1%	6%	23%	39%	27%	5%
19	RIECK Brennan	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
20	MEHROTRA Neel	2%	12%	30%	34%	19%	4%
20	KIM Remington	17%	42%	32%	8%	1%	-
22	PATEL Aayan	28%	45%	23%	4%	-	-
23	HALL Gabriel	5%	29%	40%	21%	5%	-
24	SHOUSHA Yassin	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%
25	RICHARDSON Ray	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
26	TAHA Raymond	10%	36%	38%	14%	2%	-
27	CURTY Jack	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%	2%
28	BOSS Evan	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
29	BALA-MAY Noah	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.