Mission RYC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, February 22, 2025 at 11:15 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LUCAS William	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
2	ISAYENKO Daniel	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
3	LAU Kyrus	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
3	LIANG Morgan	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
5	BEAL Colton	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
6	SONG Aidan	-	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	18%
7	SHAPIRO Leo	-	-	4%	20%	40%	30%	6%
8	NARAYAN Rishi	1%	7%	24%	36%	24%	7%	1%
9	HOWARTH Hayes	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
10	BENNETT Lachlan	-	2%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
11	AVERY Marcus	-	1%	7%	22%	34%	27%	8%
12	CHAN Ewan	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	14%	2%
13	PARK Sean	-	3%	15%	37%	36%	9%
14	HAHN EVER	-	1%	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
15	CHAVAN Aditya	-	3%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
16	GILBERT Ari	-	2%	14%	37%	34%	12%	1%
17	SONG Ryan	1%	10%	28%	34%	20%	6%	1%
18	BLAIR Campbell	-	-	6%	26%	40%	24%	4%
19	PARK Layne	1%	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
20	LEE Jeffrey	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%
21	LIM JUWANA Maximilian	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
22	TERENTIEV Michael	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
23	ZHAO Alexander	-	2%	10%	27%	36%	21%	4%
24	CHEN Mark	12%	33%	34%	16%	4%	1%	-
25	CIECIEREGA MATTHEW	-	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
26	MOTOV Max	-	3%	14%	33%	33%	14%	2%
27	SABINO Bennett	2%	12%	30%	33%	18%	5%	-
28	GAW Zachary	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	-
29	LI Kent	1%	12%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-
30	ZALETAEV Jacob	-	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	3%
31	DAI Ethan	9%	31%	37%	19%	5%	-	-
32	LEV Iaroslav	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
33	SEDAKA Dylan	8%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
34	CHEN Brian	4%	18%	34%	29%	13%	3%	-
35	JIA Francis	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
36	HU Simon	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	25%	7%
37	CHEN Ryan	2%	13%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
38	WANG William	5%	26%	40%	23%	5%	-
39	PALERMO Evan	6%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
40	GAW Christian	21%	45%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
41	SOBOLEWSKI Isaac	44%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-
41	LI Felix	36%	47%	15%	2%	-	-	-
43	HUANG KIMBALL	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-	-
44	BORNHOLZ Lawrence	31%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
44	KULJIEV Boyan	16%	36%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
46	CASTON James	34%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
47	LI Sebastian	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
48	CHEN Tyler	33%	49%	16%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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