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Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, November 17, 2019 at 4:00 PM

New Haven, CT - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BASALYGA Jeffrey	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
2	RIVERA Inigo Franco	-	-	-	2%	14%	43%	42%
3	MOSKOWITZ Mason C.	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
3	WEHLE Paul	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
5	HONG Vincent Q.	-	-	8%	35%	40%	14%	2%
6	KEEFE Duncan	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
7	OWENS William	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
8	MORRILL William	-	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
9	TSODIKOV Matthew G.	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
10	MAHONEY Colin M.	-	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
11	GINIS Nathan	-	2%	10%	28%	35%	20%	4%
12	WIND Nicky E.	-	-	-	6%	29%	47%	18%
13	PARKHURST Jr Michael	-	-	8%	34%	40%	15%	2%
14	CZAHA Balint	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
15	LO Joshua H.	-	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
16	MORRILL Justin	-	3%	13%	28%	33%	19%	4%
17	YEN Preston	-	-	3%	14%	35%	35%	12%
18	SPOSATO Andrew P.	4%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
19	BARTOLO Domenic V.	-	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	11%
20	CHO Brandon	-	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	18%
21	HOEY-WASOW Henry	5%	22%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
22	ALKEMPER Tristan H.	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
23	ATEFI Daniel	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
24	TANG Brendan J.	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	19%	4%
25	ELIN Adam E.	4%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
26	MENSAH Kennedy C	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%
27	TEVEBAUGH Andrew	2%	17%	37%	30%	12%	2%	-
28	TREJO Oliver	1%	20%	49%	25%	5%	-	-
29	GARCIA Ryan	6%	38%	39%	15%	3%	-	-
30	EDELMAN Seth A.	4%	19%	36%	29%	10%	2%	-
31	ANGKATAVANICH Owen	18%	43%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
32	MARGIL Matthew	15%	34%	32%	15%	4%	1%	-
33	BELEV Nicholas	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-	-
34	WALLACE William Ronan	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-
35	LOURENCO Dexter	6%	24%	37%	26%	7%	1%
36	WU Max	25%	43%	25%	7%	1%	-
37	HO Kaden M.	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
38	GOOSMAN Antonio R.	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	1%	-
39	BLACKBURN Henry	14%	54%	28%	4%	-	-	-
40	ZHANG Yankun	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
41	GILBERT Spencer E.	69%	28%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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