SITS D & Under Epee

Div III Men's Épée

Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Sword in the Scroll Fencing Academy - Willimantic, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHOU-ESTEBAN pau	-	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
2	BRASSARD Calvin	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%
3	WOLFORD Benjamin	20%	40%	29%	10%	1%	< 1%
3	STEVENSON Ryan	-	1%	11%	34%	42%	13%
5	GRENIER Samuel	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	23%
6	MICKEY Christopher	-	-	3%	18%	42%	37%
7	MORI Seneca	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%	-
8	HE Yurui	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
9	LECUYER-SCHOONMAKER Declan	-	1%	12%	39%	39%	10%
10	FENWICK Luke	-	-	4%	26%	49%	21%
11	PANTALONE giuseppe A.	-	-	2%	12%	38%	48%
12	SPRINGER Elijah	2%	12%	30%	34%	19%	4%
13	REELS Eric	-	2%	15%	35%	32%	13%	2%
14	PORTER Corin	2%	18%	41%	30%	8%	1%
15	BURNHAM Mark	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%
16	LIN George	-	1%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
17	PAGE Duncan	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
18	CROTTY James	-	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
19	BUMPUS Isaias	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
20	REINEKE Gerhard	7%	27%	36%	23%	7%	1%
21	HAN Nathan	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-
22	WHITELOCK James	1%	6%	23%	39%	27%	4%
23	BEEVER Logan	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
24	WITHERELL Logan	11%	50%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
25	BROWN Henry	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	5%
26	HILLEGEIST Ash	4%	21%	39%	28%	7%	-
27	SEILS Aether	11%	39%	36%	12%	1%	-
28	DRAGO Matthew	-	23%	44%	26%	6%	-
29	CUFF Joe	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
30	ENGLAND Aiden	4%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%
31	MILDE Frank	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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