9th Annual Orange & Blue

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Southwest Recreation Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	REYES Manuel A	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
2	DAFFRON Quintin	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
3	MO Jason	-	-	1%	16%	55%	27%
3	MOE Annan	-	1%	9%	40%	51%
5	SHAJI Karthik	-	-	-	-	3%	97%
6	EXNICIOS Rex	-	5%	24%	41%	25%	5%
7	SALAZAR Tomas D.	-	-	2%	15%	48%	35%
8	LIAO Anthony J.	1%	8%	30%	42%	20%
9	KOE Beckett	-	-	4%	24%	46%	26%
10	MCMANUS Liam	-	-	3%	23%	46%	27%
11	RIVERA Ivan	-	3%	21%	43%	30%	3%
12	PINKERTON Joseph H.	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
13	KIMURA Ryo	1%	10%	34%	40%	15%	-
14	LEON Nicolas	-	6%	29%	47%	17%
15	GADIYARAM Madhav	-	2%	17%	45%	35%	1%
16	RODRIGUEZ Mateo	-	5%	27%	50%	16%	1%
17	PACILIO Jacob	10%	32%	36%	18%	3%
18	OCCIANO Jade	-	5%	25%	49%	19%	2%
19	BABER Ijlal	-	1%	10%	33%	41%	15%
20	CANTERO Erick	6%	32%	43%	17%	2%
21	FERRONE Gianna	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	-
22	BURMAN Timothy	1%	14%	39%	34%	11%	1%
23	LOBEL Dillan	3%	18%	38%	32%	10%	-
24	FERRONE Nate	2%	40%	44%	13%	1%	-
24	WERTH Mario	-	4%	29%	43%	21%	2%
26	WONG Grace	1%	16%	45%	30%	7%	1%
27	PATTERSON Emma	4%	30%	43%	20%	3%	-
28	CARRERO Quentin	43%	43%	13%	1%	-
29	VENZON Makena Jane	5%	33%	48%	14%	1%
30	VILLALOBOS Ava	39%	43%	16%	2%	-	-
31	LEE Andrew	24%	47%	25%	4%	-	-
32	OLSON Clayton M.	15%	44%	34%	8%	-
33	OZTEK Muzaffer T.	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%
34	XU Maxwell	19%	47%	30%	4%	-	-
35	GENC Sienna	30%	46%	20%	3%	-	-
36	CHEN Tyler	40%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
37	PLESS Richard	31%	48%	18%	3%	-	-
38	GIRA Collin	7%	36%	47%	9%	-	-
39	ARIAS-JOHNSON Evan	25%	55%	18%	2%	-	-
41	CHEN Mikayla	68%	29%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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