The Fencing Center Div2/VET ROC

Div II Men's Saber

Sunday, March 2, 2025 at 11:15 AM

The Fencing Center - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	HOLZ Lucas	-	-	5%	23%	43%	29%
2	THOMAS Angus	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
3	KOTVALI Aneesh	1%	9%	27%	38%	22%	4%
3	MILGRAM Nathan	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%
5	IYER Neil	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
6	RAMTEKKAR Soham	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	14%
7	CRICOL Damian	2%	19%	40%	30%	8%	1%
8	CHAN Henry	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	9%
9	BEKDJANOV Arthur	1%	9%	27%	38%	21%	4%
10	TAN Ryan	3%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%
11	KANG Evan	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
12	RIGGINS Littleton K.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
13	ANUMULA Aryan	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
14	YAP Kah Kai (Cayden)	-	1%	11%	36%	44%	8%
15	WANG Xiaodong	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
16	LI Yao (Liam)	1%	10%	31%	38%	18%	3%
17	WONG David	-	1%	10%	31%	39%	18%
18	SINGHAL Armaan	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
19	CHEN Cooper	5%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
20	BRIMMER Robert (Trey)	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	10%
21	VENKATRAMAN Sudhir	5%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
22	VO Landon	7%	35%	39%	16%	3%	-
23	LI Seth	-	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%
24	COBIAN Richard	1%	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
25	HO Anson	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
26	IRVINE Patrick	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
27	LUC Linkin	2%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%
28	STONE Brad	11%	40%	34%	13%	2%	-
29	AMEN Oscar	47%	40%	12%	2%	-	-
30	THOMPSON Owen	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-
30	LUO Wei	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-
32	KEIM Jackson	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
33	MARTINEZ Mario D.	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
34	ZHENIROVSKYY Oleksandr	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
35	GONZALEZ Mark	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
36	AIKMAN Kai	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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