Motor City SYC/RCC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Sunday, March 2, 2025 at 8:30 AM

Elite Sportsplex - Waterford, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAN Charlie	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	MAZAHERI John	-	5%	22%	41%	28%	3%
3	JIN Xueyuan George	-	-	1%	11%	41%	48%
3	SONG Enoch	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
5	WANG William	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	22%	3%
6	CHEN Kyler	1%	7%	28%	41%	20%	3%
7	WU Gengze (Daniel)	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
8	BUCHNER Roland	-	6%	23%	40%	27%	5%
9	ZHENG Lerui	-	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
10	MADDES Gage	-	3%	17%	41%	32%	7%
11	XU Jason	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
12	MCCOOL Henry	1%	8%	26%	37%	24%	5%
13	KOSCIK-AQUINO Nicholas	2%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
14	HUYNH Kaleb	-	1%	11%	36%	40%	12%
15	LIU Bradley	-	4%	24%	43%	25%	4%
16	XIE Raymond	-	-	5%	23%	45%	26%
17	JIAO Daniel	-	1%	10%	35%	42%	13%
18	HUANG Lucas	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
19	DHALIWAL Zorawar Singh	4%	24%	40%	25%	6%	-
20	LI Mason	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
21	WILSON Jacob	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
22	ROSOWSKY Phoenix	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
23	TARDIFF Owen	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%	1%
24	NGUYEN Norris	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	5%
25	YU Ethan	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%
26	PAGNIELLO Francesco	7%	31%	40%	18%	3%	-
27	LEE Sung-Yull	18%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
28	ZHANG Austin	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-
29	LIM Cayden	4%	23%	41%	25%	6%	-
30	YUAN Derek	19%	43%	30%	7%	1%	-
31	ZUIDEMA Harrison	28%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-
32	SIN TaeHwan	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
33	YIN Andrew	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%	-
34	SCHIEBEL Henry	42%	45%	12%	1%	-	-
35	JAGANNATHAN Avi	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
36	CHEN Andrew	2%	18%	42%	30%	7%	-
37	CHEN Alwyn	23%	47%	25%	5%	-	-
38	BUCHNER Theodore	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
39	BROD Baylin	7%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
40	CHANG Joshua	32%	44%	20%	3%	-	-
41	WU Kangdi	30%	45%	21%	4%	-	-
42	MA Li	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
43	FAN Oscar	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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