Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Friday, March 21, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 AL-BATTAINEH Eva - - - 1% 9% 37% 53%
2 HU Sophie - 1% 5% 23% 45% 26%
3 YACOBUCCI Nadia - - - - 3% 25% 71%
3 ORBÉ-AUSTIN Maya - - - 3% 15% 41% 41%
5 SINGH Evangelina - 1% 9% 36% 45% 9%
6 YIN Chloe - - - 1% 10% 38% 50%
7 ZHU Ella - - 1% 15% 49% 34%
8 JOO Sara - - - 2% 12% 40% 46%
9 CHO Olivia - - 2% 11% 32% 41% 13%
10 FRASER Morgan - - - 3% 17% 43% 36%
11 PARK Hannah - 1% 6% 22% 38% 28% 5%
12 YANG Olivia - - 2% 16% 48% 34%
13 DE CASTRO Kai - 1% 6% 25% 44% 24%
14 KHETPAL Aalia 1% 8% 25% 36% 23% 6% -
15 CHAN Jolene - - 3% 14% 34% 37% 13%
16 HAFEZ Sahar - 1% 6% 25% 41% 24% 3%
17 LI Christina - 3% 19% 40% 30% 8%
18 ENRIQUEZ Bianca Perla - 1% 5% 23% 40% 26% 4%
19 ZHU Alivia - 1% 11% 30% 36% 19% 3%
20 LIU Bella 6% 23% 35% 26% 9% 1% -
21 SMOLICH Emily - 1% 10% 29% 37% 20% 3%
22 VO Evelyn 3% 18% 35% 30% 12% 2% -
23 FAROOQI Eliora 8% 32% 39% 17% 3% - -
24 ZHU Audrey - 3% 14% 32% 34% 15% 1%
25 KIM Audrey - 5% 26% 48% 19% 2%
26 PAEK Mila 3% 18% 34% 30% 12% 2% -
27 BREWER Gracie - 2% 15% 34% 33% 14% 2%
28 HUANG Emma - 4% 17% 34% 32% 12% 1%
29 FENG Claire - 6% 27% 41% 22% 3%
30 WANG Joann 2% 12% 32% 37% 16% 2%
31 JAZWINSKI Ivy - 2% 12% 31% 36% 17% 1%
32 LU Miaotian 11% 32% 34% 18% 4% - -
33 TANG Clementine 33% 46% 18% 3% - -
34 WANG Allyson 12% 35% 35% 15% 2% -
35 DZIWULSKI Elisabeth Claire 3% 16% 33% 32% 14% 2% -
36 KIM Lael 2% 16% 34% 32% 14% 3% -
37 REILLY Carys 1% 6% 21% 35% 28% 9% 1%
38 LI Katelyn 16% 41% 33% 9% 1% -
39 HUANG Gabrielle 2% 14% 32% 33% 16% 3% -
40 LALONDE Beatrice 6% 24% 36% 25% 8% 1% -
41 CAPPIELLO Francesca 25% 43% 25% 6% 1% - -
42 PAEK Ellie 8% 38% 36% 15% 3% - -
43 WEST Mira 40% 41% 16% 3% - - -
44 JU Victoria 1% 9% 30% 36% 19% 4% -
45 IRIZARRY Nyla 3% 15% 32% 32% 15% 3% -
46 SUN Erin 13% 36% 35% 14% 2% -
47 DEVISETTY Anjali 17% 43% 32% 7% 1% -
48 WANG Christina - 5% 21% 37% 29% 8%
49 MA Laurie 34% 41% 20% 4% - - -
50 HUANG Jiayu 2% 12% 29% 34% 19% 4% -
51 ZELDIN Nina 14% 39% 33% 12% 2% - -
52 HOLSTAD Anneliese 23% 41% 27% 8% 1% - -
53 CLOUD Chrystie 12% 35% 34% 15% 3% - -
54 JOSEPH Hannah 2% 13% 31% 33% 16% 4% -
55 TAYLOR Tess 22% 45% 28% 5% - -
56 YAO Emma 15% 38% 34% 12% 2% -
57 ZHU Alicia 17% 41% 31% 9% 1% -
58 LI Beatrice 3% 18% 35% 30% 12% 2% -
59 PAK Sophie 60% 33% 6% 1% - - -
60 LU Sophie < 1% 4% 17% 36% 31% 10% 1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.