Swarthmore College Phoenix Cup C & Under

Div II Mixed Épée

Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 8:45 AM

Lamb-Miller Fieldhouse - Swarthmore, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHOU-ESTEBAN Pau	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	31%
2	NOOL Alexander	-	1%	5%	19%	34%	31%	11%
3	KIM Zac	6%	40%	39%	14%	2%	-
3	LAWLOR Lee	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
5	ANDERSON Riley	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
6	LEVESQUE Gabriel	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
7	SEIKEL Spencer	-	3%	21%	44%	27%	5%
8	LENAR David	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%
9	PFEIL Shawn	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
10	CUMMINGS Owen	-	3%	21%	41%	29%	6%
11	LEE Kevin	1%	11%	42%	35%	10%	1%
12	HOFFMAN Ivy	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
12	PAULES Christian	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
14	ZHANG Jason	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	3%
14	SAINT-PHARD Shana	9%	34%	40%	15%	2%	-
16	MAGUIRE Timothy	4%	18%	32%	29%	14%	3%	-
17	LOPEZ Alexander	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	21%
18	FAKTOR Emily	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
19	RUSEN Gary V.	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
20	MITCHELL Matthew D.	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
21	GUIDANGEN Jason	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%	-
22	BISHOP Avery	5%	23%	37%	27%	8%	1%
23	WILKENS Lorelei	22%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
24	ZHAO Rui	1%	9%	25%	33%	22%	8%	1%
25	SPECTER Luka	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
26	MOULDING Hugh	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
27	NEPOMUCENO Elijah	1%	9%	33%	38%	16%	2%
28	TRAN Alex	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	1%
29	MOO Kaw	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	3%
30	SCHLISKEY Ellington	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%	-
31	FOY Sophia	10%	34%	39%	16%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.