Fencing Center of Chicago RYC & RJC

Junior Men's Épée

Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Canlan Sports - Barrington, IL 60010, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SPINA Joseph B.	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
2	ROSADO Balthazar Francisco	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
3	MITEV Alexander	-	-	3%	19%	46%	32%
3	HUANG Kenneth	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	15%
5	GINZBURG Adam	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	29%
6	ZIEGLER John	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	19%
7	SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN	-	-	5%	27%	45%	22%
8	SERAFYM Damian	-	2%	16%	43%	32%	7%
9	GRAVES Lawson	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
10	WILLIAMS Logan	-	-	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
11	VUILLEMIN Gregoire	-	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
12	LEHNER Brian	-	8%	35%	37%	16%	3%	-
13	MCDOWELL Will	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
14	STOKER Elliott	23%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-
15	CURTY Jack	1%	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
16	HERRERA Xavier	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
17	BORISENKO Samuel	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	16%
18	HERDMAN Julian	9%	34%	38%	15%	2%	-
19	LARSON Vaughn	16%	43%	33%	8%	1%	-
20	BARFORD Giovanni	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
21	RIECK Brennan	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
22	GLEN Ethan	9%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
23	PATEL Aayan	24%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
24	BAGDONAS Olivier	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
25	SAHA Sayan	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
26	HONG Daniel	35%	45%	18%	2%	-	-
27	SIEDOW William	-	< 1%	3%	18%	38%	32%	8%
28	MUNOZ Rocco	63%	32%	4%	-	-	-	-
29	MARTIN Malakai	17%	56%	23%	4%	-	-	-
30	HALL Gabriel	9%	36%	41%	13%	2%	-
31	STICKROD August	8%	42%	36%	11%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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