Duel of the East Coast ROC/RJCC/RYC

Cadet Women's Foil

Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TSIMIKLIS aphrodite	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
2	MCFARLANE Asha	-	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
3	ZELDIN Nadia	-	-	1%	13%	42%	44%
3	BERGEL Daphne	-	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
5	CHOI Cara	11%	36%	38%	13%	2%	< 1%
6	ORBE-AUSTIN Nia	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
7	ZHU Ella	-	4%	24%	43%	24%	4%
8	ORRINGER Lottie	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
9	LI Christina	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	22%	4%
10	FEDER Acadia	-	1%	9%	30%	40%	19%	1%
11	LI savannah	-	-	1%	7%	28%	45%	18%
12	LAVINE Samantha	-	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
13	CHAN Jolene	-	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%
14	ORBÉ-AUSTIN Maya	-	2%	14%	38%	36%	9%
15	SHUTZER Lily	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%	1%
16	LIN Yunong	-	3%	16%	40%	34%	8%
17	SHIN Elizabeth	-	-	6%	27%	45%	21%
18	EPSTEIN Naomi	-	-	4%	19%	41%	32%	5%
19	LEE Allison	-	1%	6%	25%	41%	24%	3%
20	SUN Erin	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	2%	-
21	CLARK Lillian	1%	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
22	LEO Jenna	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
23	CHUNG Stella	-	6%	23%	39%	26%	6%	-
24	GOMEZ Sofia	14%	42%	32%	10%	2%	-	-
25	WAN Celine	1%	16%	43%	31%	8%	1%
26	BEKIYANTS Elizabeth	4%	22%	39%	26%	7%	1%	-
27	MACKINTOSH Quinn	-	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
28	CHAN Kaitlyn	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%	-
29	STEWART Isla	21%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
30	MCCORMICK Ella	24%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
31	SONG Sarah	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
32	OTTAVIANO Maris	9%	47%	35%	9%	1%	-
33	VACCARO Lillian	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-	-
34	ZHANG Caroline	18%	42%	31%	8%	1%	-
35	JUVVADI Aanika	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-
36	GUSTAFSSON Anna	39%	43%	16%	2%	-	-	-
37	LENZ Phoebe	12%	38%	35%	12%	2%	-	-
38	PIERSIG Eleanor	5%	26%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
39	BENNETT Emi	23%	44%	27%	6%	-	-
40	LEVY Zia	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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