Fairfax Challenge ROC(DV1A, DV2, VET), RJCC, RYC & PARA

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas - - - - 5% 28% 67%
2 WHEELOCK Bryan M. - - 1% 6% 25% 43% 24%
3 LIM Charlie - 3% 18% 39% 33% 6%
3 BELOKON Sammy - 2% 13% 33% 35% 15% 2%
5 METZ Mason - 3% 16% 35% 34% 12%
6 PRUT Anton - 4% 17% 35% 32% 11%
7 HAN Alexander - 4% 20% 37% 29% 8%
8 LU Nathan - - 1% 8% 28% 43% 21%
9 SMOLICH Marat - - - 4% 18% 41% 37%
10 YU William - 3% 17% 36% 33% 11%
11 CLARK Benjamin - 2% 13% 33% 37% 15%
12 TAM Kyle 1% 8% 29% 40% 20% 2%
13 EMENHEISER Conrad - - 1% 9% 36% 54%
14 POWELL Sean - 3% 13% 29% 34% 18% 3%
15 GORLOVITZKI Amitai - 3% 15% 31% 32% 15% 2%
16 FERRONE Nate 7% 34% 38% 17% 3% - -
17 ELSAYED Ahmed 1% 9% 25% 34% 23% 7% 1%
18 YANG David H. 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
19 GADIYARAM Madhav 1% 9% 25% 34% 23% 7% -
20 GRINER Kevin 2% 13% 30% 33% 18% 4% -
21 HARWOOD Gray 2% 11% 28% 33% 20% 5% -
22 SMITH Finnley 1% 8% 26% 37% 23% 5%
23 DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel - 6% 23% 37% 25% 7% 1%
24 SHEA William 6% 28% 39% 22% 5% -
25 SALAZAR Tomas D. 1% 9% 28% 36% 21% 5%
26 CLARK Robert 1% 9% 29% 37% 20% 4%
27 RAMESH Prashvin 11% 30% 34% 19% 5% 1% -
28 PHILLIPS Oliver 37% 43% 17% 3% - -
29 KARLEKAR Ved 32% 43% 20% 4% - -
30 CHAN Geoffrey 2% 15% 35% 32% 13% 2% -
31 HAN Nathan 54% 36% 9% 1% - - -
32 LEE Noah 17% 43% 30% 9% 1% -
33 MACKAY Ian 47% 40% 12% 2% - -
34 BAZZLE Christopher E. 3% 16% 31% 31% 15% 3% -
35 FLYNN Oliver 22% 40% 28% 9% 2% - -
36 SINGH Meet 11% 35% 35% 16% 3% -
37 LAZAREANU Justin 8% 27% 35% 22% 7% 1% -
38 RHEE Josiah 3% 17% 32% 30% 15% 3% -
39 ERTZBERGER Joel 5% 27% 41% 23% 5% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.