National Championships and July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Vet-50 Men's Foil

Saturday, June 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Baird Center - Milwaukee, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	POPOKH Leo	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
2	LOPEZ Reynaldo (REY)	-	-	-	5%	37%	58%
3	FOELLMER Oliver K.	-	-	-	2%	42%	56%
3	ANDERSON Nathan T.	-	-	-	8%	56%	35%
5	KOEHN Ted	-	-	-	1%	15%	55%	30%
6	KIM Ethan	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%	-
7	SIRICO Thomas (Tommy) P.	-	-	2%	14%	45%	40%
8	CHO Michael	-	-	-	-	7%	43%	50%
9	WYSZYNSKI Marek B.	-	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
10	RIFFATERRE Jason	-	-	3%	21%	55%	19%	2%
11	VALENTINE Iain	-	-	8%	31%	42%	19%	1%
12	MONSEFI Amir	1%	8%	31%	43%	15%	1%
13	HARKINS Craig T.	-	-	3%	21%	50%	26%
14	ZHAO Zhiyong	-	-	10%	35%	40%	15%	1%
15	DE BARROS CONTI Thibaut	-	2%	33%	42%	19%	3%	-
16	KISSINGFORD John F.	-	-	2%	11%	33%	40%	14%
17	POWERS Douglas A.	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
18	ORNELAS Polo	21%	53%	23%	2%	-	-
19	NEEVEL David	-	3%	23%	49%	23%	2%
20	KRYLTSOV Greg	-	7%	38%	48%	6%	-
21	CHENG Thomas	-	-	3%	26%	52%	18%
22	STOY Patrick	14%	39%	36%	11%	1%	-	-
23	MAURIN Michael	-	-	8%	31%	42%	19%	1%
24	JOO Michael	11%	35%	37%	14%	2%	-
25	RUSANOV Oleg	2%	18%	51%	27%	2%	-
26	TOWSTER Robert	21%	44%	28%	7%	-	-
27	JEFFCOAT Timothy	2%	17%	39%	35%	6%	-	-
28	MISTRETTA Alex	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-	-
29	NEWELL Tim	39%	48%	12%	1%	-	-
30	BORG Daniel	34%	50%	15%	1%	-	-
31	GERACI Paul A.	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
32	SPRINGER Michael	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
33	BERKE Daniel (Dan) L.	3%	25%	49%	20%	2%	-
34	LOTURCO Greg	62%	36%	2%	-	-	-	-
35	THOMAS Jr. Robert D.	23%	43%	27%	6%	-	-	-
36	CHAO Pierre	11%	37%	37%	13%	1%	-	-
37	GOLLNICK Brian	33%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-
38	FELDMAN Louis	48%	41%	10%	1%	-	-
39	RUTH Erin	30%	62%	7%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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