Nutmeg State Games

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, July 27, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Candlewood Fencing Newtown - Newtown, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KOKENGE Reid	-	-	1%	11%	41%	48%
2	LIU Jeremiah	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
3	PALLADINO Ben	-	4%	18%	34%	32%	11%
3	LIU Adam	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
5	WU Jerry	6%	33%	40%	18%	3%	-
6	BELLIVEAU Raven	-	-	6%	25%	44%	25%
7	BRASSARD Calvin	4%	28%	43%	20%	4%	-
8	SPRINGER Elijah	18%	48%	28%	6%	-	-
9	CRESPO Nathaniel Justus	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
10	FRY Nicholas	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
11	ZELIN Sam	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
12	HOWARD Jackson	1%	13%	33%	35%	16%	3%
13	CHOI Paul	-	1%	7%	31%	45%	16%
14	LECUYER-SCHOONMAKER Declan	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
15	BELLIVEAU Emmett	-	7%	26%	37%	24%	6%
16	REELS Eric	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
17	RUSSELL Edward	-	1%	10%	29%	39%	20%
18	ROUSE Joseph	1%	12%	38%	37%	11%	1%
19	CARPENTER Touma	1%	11%	35%	37%	14%	2%
20	BELLIVEAU Shane	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
21	BUCHAS Jamie	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
22	CROTTY James	10%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%
23	COLÓN Atum	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-
24	HE Yurui	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%
25	ENGLISH William	-	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
26	KOKENGE Chad	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
26	LIU Kun	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
28	TARDIFF Seth	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-
28	BUMPUS Isaias	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-
30	AU Joshua	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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