NYFA 10 years anniversary tournament Session 2

Y-14 Mixed Épée

Thursday, July 31, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Brooklyn, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GACIOCH Noah	-	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%
2	MIDYANY Evan	-	-	1%	9%	37%	52%
3	PROFIS Liora	-	-	-	1%	12%	45%	42%
3	TOWNSHEND Connor	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
5	SINGLETON Aman	-	1%	7%	29%	46%	17%
6	TAI Edison	-	-	5%	31%	64%
7	VOSKOV Olivia	-	4%	20%	38%	31%	6%
8	YAMAGUCHI Yuzuki	-	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	18%
9	KIM Henry	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	51%
10	AHMED Mohsen	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	25%	6%
11	GUO Luke	5%	30%	46%	17%	1%
12	CAFASSO Alexander	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
13	DODIN Daniel M.	-	-	-	5%	28%	47%	19%
14	WU Michelle	-	-	-	5%	28%	48%	18%
15	SHCHUR Grayson	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
16	CHIANG William	6%	47%	39%	8%	-
17	GUMEDELLI Mohnish	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
18	KHERSONSKY Robert	-	1%	6%	27%	46%	19%	1%
19	KUTSY Olga	2%	23%	45%	25%	4%	-	-
20	CHEN Jayden	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-
21	MOKRETSOV Leah	7%	34%	39%	17%	3%	-
22	BACON Corban	5%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
23	WU Matthew	1%	11%	32%	35%	17%	3%
24	SHAYAKHMETOVA Suzanna	9%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
25	GIERAT-KATZ Izabella	5%	31%	42%	19%	3%	-	-
26	WANG Eason	2%	17%	38%	31%	11%	1%	-
27	MIDYANY Ryan	-	9%	37%	48%	6%
28	GANESH Maxen	1%	21%	40%	29%	9%	1%
29	KABA Elias	-	3%	14%	34%	35%	13%
30	ENG Kyler	1%	12%	35%	35%	14%	2%
31	SALOUS Sarah	1%	15%	36%	33%	12%	2%	-
32	HU Constance	-	6%	25%	40%	23%	5%	-
33	CHEN Madeline	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	1%
34	YOUN Kylie	2%	22%	42%	28%	6%	1%	-
35	BUDMAN Ava	5%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
36	GOODMAN Liam	8%	34%	37%	17%	4%	-
37	CHAN Ian	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-
38	KROPP Wesley	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	14%
39	HELMY Richard	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	27%	4%
40	KATS Brandon	-	1%	11%	34%	38%	14%	1%
41	SHETH Anayaà	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%	-
42	STERN Savannah	-	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
43	WELCH Sebastian	37%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
44	WONG Vansen	11%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
45	LAU Karina	50%	39%	10%	1%	-
46	PETROFF Eva	1%	12%	33%	37%	15%	1%
47	ATKINS Elan	1%	12%	32%	36%	17%	2%
48	LAU Ivana	70%	26%	4%	-	-	-	-
49	KELSEY Fabienne	47%	38%	12%	2%	-	-	-
50	WANG Emily	48%	39%	11%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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