Neil Lazar Div1/Div2/Veteran ROC

Div II Men's Foil

Sunday, August 24, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Southern Connecticut State University (James Moore Fieldhouse) - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 HOU Gaven - 1% 8% 23% 35% 25% 7%
3 DAVIDSON Elliot - - - 1% 7% 33% 59%
3 URIBE GOMEZ Sebastian Javier - - - - 3% 25% 72%
5 DEEB Adam - - - 2% 14% 43% 41%
6 LIU Aaron - - 1% 6% 23% 42% 28%
7 ABRAMKIN Tim - 3% 16% 36% 34% 11%
8 SMITH Grant D. - - 7% 35% 58%
9 PLUMMER Waylon - 1% 9% 27% 38% 22% 3%
10 CHA James - 2% 12% 32% 37% 16%
11 HAN Alexander - 1% 8% 30% 42% 19%
12 FROST Chayse - 1% 6% 22% 39% 29% 4%
13 LEE Thomas 1% 13% 37% 35% 13% 2%
14 ZHAO Ryan 2% 14% 32% 34% 15% 2%
15 GECKELER James 11% 33% 35% 17% 4% -
16 COFFIN Carleton 2% 14% 33% 34% 15% 3%
17 FERENCZ Alexander J. - 4% 19% 36% 31% 9%
18 TOOMRE Kai - 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 6%
19 PAN Ethan - 1% 6% 20% 35% 29% 10%
20 BAI Austin - 1% 7% 27% 43% 23%
21 XU Nathan - 1% 6% 25% 43% 22% 3%
22 YANG Dylan - 1% 10% 31% 40% 18%
23 ZHANG GAVIN J 1% 6% 22% 37% 27% 7%
24 PECK Quinn 1% 7% 24% 37% 26% 6%
25 XU Ryan 1% 9% 26% 36% 22% 5% -
26 GORLOVITZKI Amitai - 3% 15% 33% 34% 14% 1%
27 KROLEWSKI Alexander 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 6%
28 SUSANTO William - 2% 12% 28% 34% 20% 4%
29 KIM Aiden - 4% 19% 36% 29% 10% 1%
30 CZARNECKI Thomas - 6% 23% 34% 26% 9% 1%
31 JEFF Ariff 8% 31% 36% 19% 5% -
32 QUAN Noah 12% 33% 34% 17% 4% - -
33 LEE Charles T - 2% 13% 32% 37% 15%
34 MUNDAHL Brandon - 2% 14% 35% 36% 13%
35 POLLIO Benjamin 4% 22% 40% 27% 6% 1% -
36 ZHANG Julian - 4% 21% 36% 28% 9% 1%
37 NIECHWADOWICZ Michael 1% 15% 41% 36% 7%
38 CHOI Hunter 1% 10% 27% 35% 21% 5% -
39 REN Ryan 3% 22% 38% 27% 9% 1% -
41 DIAZ Gabriel 2% 19% 35% 29% 12% 3% -
42 ULYSSE Jacob 4% 24% 40% 26% 6% 1% -
43 ESPINAL Ryan 22% 41% 27% 8% 1% -
44 XU Brian 13% 34% 34% 16% 3% -
45 PEREZ Logan 6% 36% 41% 15% 1%
46 FALCONE Jack 5% 27% 39% 23% 6% 1%
47 STAFFORD Gareth 1% 6% 22% 37% 27% 7%
48 DAO-CRESPO Joaquin 5% 26% 38% 24% 7% 1% -
49 THOMAS Liam - 5% 20% 34% 28% 11% 2%
50 AMRANI David - 2% 10% 26% 35% 22% 5%
51 DAWSON Myer 35% 42% 18% 4% - - -
52 CHENG Thomas - - < 1% 5% 26% 49% 20%
53 ZAPPALA Nikolai - 5% 24% 40% 25% 5%
54 MCCALL Aidan 7% 30% 38% 20% 5% -
55 GRANADOS Luis 2% 22% 45% 27% 4%
56 TIBBETTS Justin 1% 11% 30% 36% 19% 4%
57 MURPHY Damian J. 6% 24% 37% 25% 8% 1%
58 AYYAGARI Abhiram 4% 38% 40% 16% 2% -
59 BERETICH Brian 4% 23% 40% 26% 6% 1% -
60 EZEKIEL Nathan 3% 20% 37% 29% 10% 1% -
61 ABDELGAWAD Abdelrahman < 1% - 4% 18% 41% 36%
61 ARSHAD Mohsin 18% 40% 30% 10% 2% -
63 BOURNE Zane 55% 35% 8% 1% - - -
64 BERNARD Jonathan 41% 42% 15% 2% - -
65 HU Daniel 6% 24% 36% 25% 8% 1% -
66 SHAMBARGER Graham 33% 42% 20% 4% - -
67 HIMELFARB Charlie 66% 30% 4% - -
68 HOWARD Mekai 81% 17% 1% - - -
69 LIU jeremy 9% 29% 36% 21% 6% 1% -
70 SINCAVAGE Louis 44% 40% 13% 2% - - -
71 MANCHALA Vedanth 62% 31% 6% 1% - - -
72 DINIO Clara J. 2% 21% 43% 27% 6% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.