Neil Lazar Div1/Div2/Veteran ROC

Div II Men's Foil

Sunday, August 24, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Southern Connecticut State University (James Moore Fieldhouse) - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 HOU Gaven 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 33% 7%
3 DAVIDSON Elliot 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 59%
3 URIBE GOMEZ Sebastian Javier 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 72%
5 DEEB Adam 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 41%
6 LIU Aaron 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 71% 28%
7 ABRAMKIN Tim 100% 100% 97% 81% 45% 11%
8 SMITH Grant D. 100% 100% 100% 93% 58%
9 PLUMMER Waylon 100% 100% 99% 90% 63% 25% 3%
10 CHA James 100% 100% 98% 85% 54% 16%
11 HAN Alexander 100% 100% 99% 91% 61% 19%
12 FROST Chayse 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 32% 4%
13 LEE Thomas 100% 99% 87% 50% 14% 2%
14 ZHAO Ryan 100% 98% 84% 51% 18% 2%
15 GECKELER James 100% 89% 56% 21% 4% -
16 COFFIN Carleton 100% 98% 84% 51% 18% 3%
17 FERENCZ Alexander J. 100% 100% 95% 76% 40% 9%
18 TOOMRE Kai 100% 100% 99% 92% 67% 30% 6%
19 PAN Ethan 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 10%
20 BAI Austin 100% 100% 99% 93% 66% 23%
21 XU Nathan 100% 100% 99% 93% 68% 25% 3%
22 YANG Dylan 100% 100% 99% 88% 57% 18%
23 ZHANG GAVIN J 100% 99% 93% 71% 35% 7%
24 PECK Quinn 100% 99% 92% 69% 31% 6%
25 XU Ryan 100% 99% 90% 63% 28% 6% -
26 GORLOVITZKI Amitai 100% 100% 97% 82% 49% 15% 1%
27 KROLEWSKI Alexander 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 6%
28 SUSANTO William 100% 100% 98% 86% 58% 24% 4%
29 KIM Aiden 100% 100% 95% 76% 40% 11% 1%
30 CZARNECKI Thomas 100% 100% 93% 70% 36% 11% 1%
31 JEFF Ariff 100% 92% 61% 25% 5% -
32 QUAN Noah 100% 88% 55% 21% 4% - -
33 LEE Charles T 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 15%
34 MUNDAHL Brandon 100% 100% 98% 84% 49% 13%
35 POLLIO Benjamin 100% 96% 74% 34% 7% 1% -
36 ZHANG Julian 100% 100% 95% 75% 38% 10% 1%
37 NIECHWADOWICZ Michael 100% 99% 84% 43% 7%
38 CHOI Hunter 100% 99% 89% 62% 27% 5% -
39 REN Ryan 100% 97% 75% 37% 10% 1% -
41 DIAZ Gabriel 100% 98% 79% 44% 15% 3% -
42 ULYSSE Jacob 100% 96% 72% 33% 7% 1% -
43 ESPINAL Ryan 100% 78% 37% 10% 1% -
44 XU Brian 100% 87% 53% 19% 4% -
45 PEREZ Logan 100% 94% 57% 16% 1%
46 FALCONE Jack 100% 95% 68% 29% 6% 1%
47 STAFFORD Gareth 100% 99% 94% 72% 35% 7%
48 DAO-CRESPO Joaquin 100% 95% 70% 32% 8% 1% -
49 THOMAS Liam 100% 100% 94% 74% 40% 13% 2%
50 AMRANI David 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 27% 5%
51 DAWSON Myer 100% 65% 22% 4% - - -
52 CHENG Thomas 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 69% 20%
53 ZAPPALA Nikolai 100% 100% 95% 71% 30% 5%
54 MCCALL Aidan 100% 93% 63% 25% 5% -
55 GRANADOS Luis 100% 98% 76% 31% 4%
56 TIBBETTS Justin 100% 99% 88% 58% 23% 4%
57 MURPHY Damian J. 100% 94% 70% 33% 8% 1%
58 AYYAGARI Abhiram 100% 96% 59% 18% 3% -
59 BERETICH Brian 100% 96% 73% 33% 7% 1% -
60 EZEKIEL Nathan 100% 97% 77% 40% 12% 2% -
61 ABDELGAWAD Abdelrahman 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 36%
61 ARSHAD Mohsin 100% 82% 41% 12% 2% -
63 BOURNE Zane 100% 45% 9% 1% - - -
64 BERNARD Jonathan 100% 59% 17% 2% - -
65 HU Daniel 100% 94% 70% 35% 10% 1% -
66 SHAMBARGER Graham 100% 67% 25% 5% - -
67 HIMELFARB Charlie 100% 34% 5% - -
68 HOWARD Mekai 100% 19% 1% - - -
69 LIU jeremy 100% 91% 63% 27% 6% 1% -
70 SINCAVAGE Louis 100% 56% 15% 2% - - -
71 MANCHALA Vedanth 100% 38% 7% 1% - - -
72 DINIO Clara J. 100% 98% 77% 33% 7% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.