Ataba Fencing Club September Challenge

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, September 6, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Ataba Fencing Club - Hartland, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SPIER Julian H.	-	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
2	CURTY Jack	-	-	5%	22%	41%	29%	3%
3	KUNJAN Lena R.	-	-	-	-	8%	47%	45%
3	MCDOWELL Will	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
5	SOBESHKEVYCH Roman	-	-	3%	15%	36%	36%	10%
6	ROBBINS Christopher (Chris) W.	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
7	GLASS Timothy C.	-	-	2%	18%	45%	34%
8	OBERLY Nicholas	-	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	8%
9	WEAVER Edward	-	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%	-
10	SWANSON Dave	-	2%	14%	40%	35%	9%
11	ALI Adam	1%	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
12	TOLLEFSON Zachary	-	1%	8%	32%	42%	17%
13	SCHROEDER Karl A.	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	1%
14	SWENSON Diego	30%	45%	21%	3%	-	-
15	DELA CRUZ Noel	4%	20%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
16	NASSOS Eric	-	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-
17	MACGREGOR Grant	-	1%	9%	24%	35%	24%	7%
18	BURKHARDT Krista L.	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
19	BERTRAND Reece	4%	28%	39%	22%	6%	1%	-
20	TIERNEY Luke	20%	45%	29%	6%	-	-
21	SCHERG Caleb	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%	-
22	ST. GEORGE David J.	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
23	VIDOR Caio	8%	34%	41%	15%	2%	-
24	CARTY Brenden	1%	12%	35%	35%	15%	2%	-
25	RITTERBUSCH Abigail	21%	42%	29%	8%	-	-	-
26	NIXON Bailey	42%	44%	12%	1%	-	-	-
27	CHEEVER Katie	68%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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