Ataba Fencing Club September Challenge

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, September 6, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Ataba Fencing Club - Hartland, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 SPIER Julian H. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 74%
2 CURTY Jack 100% 100% 100% 94% 72% 32% 3%
3 KUNJAN Lena R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 92% 45%
3 MCDOWELL Will 100% 100% 98% 84% 52% 17% 2%
5 SOBESHKEVYCH Roman 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 46% 10%
6 ROBBINS Christopher (Chris) W. 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 24% 4%
7 GLASS Timothy C. 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 34%
8 OBERLY Nicholas 100% 100% 100% 95% 76% 39% 8%
9 WEAVER Edward 100% 100% 94% 70% 30% 5% -
10 SWANSON Dave 100% 100% 98% 84% 43% 9%
11 ALI Adam 100% 99% 87% 54% 19% 3% -
12 TOLLEFSON Zachary 100% 100% 99% 91% 59% 17%
13 SCHROEDER Karl A. 100% 100% 96% 80% 45% 13% 1%
14 SWENSON Diego 100% 70% 25% 4% - -
15 DELA CRUZ Noel 100% 96% 76% 41% 13% 2% -
16 NASSOS Eric 100% 100% 89% 56% 21% 4% -
17 MACGREGOR Grant 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 31% 7%
18 BURKHARDT Krista L. 100% 98% 84% 50% 17% 3% -
19 BERTRAND Reece 100% 96% 68% 29% 6% 1% -
20 TIERNEY Luke 100% 80% 36% 6% - -
21 SCHERG Caleb 100% 99% 92% 70% 35% 8% -
22 ST. GEORGE David J. 100% 91% 60% 24% 5% - -
23 VIDOR Caio 100% 92% 58% 17% 2% -
24 CARTY Brenden 100% 99% 87% 52% 17% 3% -
25 RITTERBUSCH Abigail 100% 79% 37% 8% - - -
26 NIXON Bailey 100% 58% 14% 1% - - -
27 CHEEVER Katie 100% 32% 4% - - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.