Air Force ROC (D1A, DV2, VET), RJCC

Cadet Women's Épée

Saturday, September 13, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Air Force Cadet Field House - Air Force Academy, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CARRIER Meredith	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	55%
2	BRIDGE Rebekah	-	-	-	5%	26%	47%	21%
3	GAN Shelby	-	-	3%	13%	33%	37%	14%
3	CHIOU-WILLIAMS Matea	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
5	JORDAN Zoe	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	18%
6	BUCA Nora	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
7	GILLIS-PADE Neallie	2%	17%	35%	31%	13%	2%	-
8	JORGENSEN Kjirsten	-	-	1%	8%	26%	42%	23%
9	BURKS Madison	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
10	FISCHBEIN Quinley	-	3%	16%	38%	33%	9%	1%
11	HULL Fiona	28%	44%	22%	4%	< 1%	-	-
12	KENT Laurel	-	1%	9%	30%	39%	18%	3%
13	MANDAP Alessandra	-	4%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%
14	STOY Sophia	2%	15%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
15	SEO Jasmine	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	4%
16	NIMIJAN emerie	18%	44%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
17	BOWDEN Lily	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
18	LAMOREAUX Savannah	-	-	2%	13%	37%	40%	8%
19	HILL Aurora	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
20	LEE Lauren Jinju	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-
21	STEPHAN Ella Whitney	1%	5%	19%	34%	29%	10%	1%
22	THOMAS Mackenzie	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-	-
23	SCHMIDT Tessa	1%	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%
24	CHENIER Amelia	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-	-
25	CART Jodi	-	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%
26	MONESTERE Gianna	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
27	LAMOREAUX Collette	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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