GFA Fall Festival Challenge #1

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Guanyi Fencing Academy - Columbia, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	TIKHONOV Ilia	-	-	-	1%	13%	47%	38%
2	YANG Alisa	-	-	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
3	SWENSON Keane J.	-	-	-	3%	19%	48%	29%
3	LEE Aiden	-	-	-	4%	25%	48%	22%
5	GLOGOWSKI Konrad	-	-	-	4%	19%	38%	32%	7%
6	AYOTTE James	-	-	4%	26%	46%	22%	3%
7	TIKHONOV Daniel	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
8	ARMSTRONG TyLee	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	12%	1%
9	CHEN Brian	-	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	41%
10	LEE Anton	-	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
11	LIU Yueri	-	-	-	2%	14%	44%	40%
12	CHI Chelsea	-	3%	18%	37%	30%	10%	1%
13	BORAN Brooks	-	2%	13%	32%	36%	16%	1%
14	CHANEY Charles	-	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
15	HALE Bradley	14%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
16	WANG Trinity	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-
17	ZHU Yiming	7%	29%	40%	20%	4%	-	-
18	RICHARDS Axelle	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
19	FENG Xinmin	3%	23%	47%	23%	3%	-	-
20	LORENZ Nathan	7%	29%	40%	20%	4%	-	-
21	WEI Jayden	4%	25%	39%	25%	7%	1%	-
22	WEI Sherry	-	10%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
23	KUBBA Sauvil	23%	45%	27%	5%	-	-	-
24	LI Andrew	1%	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
25	MADDOX Elle	2%	17%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
26	LI Yilong	4%	25%	40%	24%	6%	-	-
27	ZHU Danielle Jade	70%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-
28	DROLET Julia	60%	32%	7%	1%	-	-	-	-
29	THOMPSON Josh	15%	40%	34%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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