GFA Fall Festival Challenge #1

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Guanyi Fencing Academy - Columbia, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 TIKHONOV Ilia 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 85% 38%
2 YANG Alisa 100% 100% 100% 94% 70% 31% 5%
3 SWENSON Keane J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 77% 29%
3 LEE Aiden 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 71% 22%
5 GLOGOWSKI Konrad 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 77% 39% 7%
6 AYOTTE James 100% 100% 100% 96% 70% 25% 3%
7 TIKHONOV Daniel 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 36%
8 ARMSTRONG TyLee 100% 100% 97% 84% 50% 13% 1%
9 CHEN Brian 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 41%
10 LEE Anton 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 36% 10% 1%
11 LIU Yueri 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 40%
12 CHI Chelsea 100% 100% 97% 79% 42% 12% 1%
13 BORAN Brooks 100% 100% 98% 85% 53% 17% 1%
14 CHANEY Charles 100% 100% 98% 82% 46% 14% 2% -
15 HALE Bradley 100% 86% 50% 15% 2% - -
16 WANG Trinity 100% 97% 80% 46% 16% 3% -
17 ZHU Yiming 100% 93% 64% 24% 4% - -
18 RICHARDS Axelle 100% 100% 96% 76% 41% 13% 2% -
19 FENG Xinmin 100% 97% 73% 27% 3% - -
20 LORENZ Nathan 100% 93% 64% 24% 4% - -
21 WEI Jayden 100% 96% 72% 33% 8% 1% -
22 WEI Sherry 100% 100% 90% 54% 17% 2% -
23 KUBBA Sauvil 100% 77% 32% 5% - - -
24 LI Andrew 100% 99% 93% 68% 33% 9% 1% -
25 MADDOX Elle 100% 98% 82% 43% 12% 2% - -
26 LI Yilong 100% 96% 71% 31% 6% - -
27 ZHU Danielle Jade 100% 30% 3% - - - -
28 DROLET Julia 100% 40% 7% 1% - - - -
29 THOMPSON Josh 100% 85% 44% 10% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.