2025 TCFC September Challenges

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 2:00 PM

TCFC - St. Paul, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TOLLEFSON Zachary - - 3% 13% 31% 36% 17%
2 SIEDOW William - 8% 31% 40% 19% 2%
3 ROBBINS Christopher - 3% 19% 38% 29% 10% 1%
3 ROWLAND Marsden - 2% 12% 31% 38% 17%
5 FERGUSON Ross - - 1% 8% 36% 55%
6 GLENNON Michael 1% 6% 20% 33% 27% 11% 2%
7 TAKATA Benjamin - 3% 16% 35% 34% 12%
8 SCHROEDER Karl - 3% 15% 34% 35% 13%
9 MANSKE Niul - - 1% 9% 38% 40% 12%
10 SHOEMAKER Oliver 5% 26% 42% 23% 4% -
11 CHO Joseph - 9% 30% 37% 20% 4%
12 PREIDL Matthias - - 3% 16% 34% 34% 12%
13 LI Ziyue 4% 21% 38% 28% 9% 1%
14 MOHAMED Sabir 17% 37% 31% 12% 2% -
15 BISSEN Quinn - - 5% 24% 45% 23% 3%
16 RUBIN Joshua 9% 34% 36% 17% 3% - -
17 DRAWZ Chase 1% 6% 20% 32% 28% 12% 2%
18 YATES Graeme - 2% 14% 38% 40% 6%
19 PHAM Thai-Long 2% 14% 33% 34% 15% 2%
20 JORGENSEN Kjirsten 3% 18% 41% 30% 8% 1%
21 JOHN Elsa 3% 22% 42% 26% 6% -
22 TAHA Raymond - 4% 25% 47% 20% 3% -
23 MINGO Joshua - 6% 26% 40% 24% 4% -
24 CLIPPARD Erik J. 2% 13% 29% 32% 18% 5% 1%
25 LEE Wilson 57% 36% 7% 1% - -
26 SOTO Michael 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
27 TELCI Arya 12% 34% 34% 16% 3% - -
28 STENZEL Henry 52% 39% 9% 1% - - -
29 VICKERY Lincoln < 1% 5% 23% 38% 27% 6%
30 MIEST Davis 6% 35% 40% 17% 3% -
31 STONE Ken 36% 42% 19% 4% - -
32 WASHINGTON Benjamin 3% 16% 33% 32% 14% 2% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.