2025 TCFC September Challenges

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 2:00 PM

TCFC - St. Paul, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TOLLEFSON Zachary 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 17%
2 SIEDOW William 100% 100% 92% 61% 21% 2%
3 ROBBINS Christopher 100% 100% 97% 78% 40% 11% 1%
3 ROWLAND Marsden 100% 100% 98% 86% 55% 17%
5 FERGUSON Ross 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 55%
6 GLENNON Michael 100% 99% 93% 73% 40% 13% 2%
7 TAKATA Benjamin 100% 100% 97% 81% 46% 12%
8 SCHROEDER Karl 100% 100% 97% 82% 47% 13%
9 MANSKE Niul 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 53% 12%
10 SHOEMAKER Oliver 100% 95% 69% 27% 4% -
11 CHO Joseph 100% 100% 90% 61% 24% 4%
12 PREIDL Matthias 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 47% 12%
13 LI Ziyue 100% 96% 75% 38% 10% 1%
14 MOHAMED Sabir 100% 83% 45% 15% 2% -
15 BISSEN Quinn 100% 100% 100% 95% 71% 26% 3%
16 RUBIN Joshua 100% 91% 57% 20% 4% - -
17 DRAWZ Chase 100% 99% 94% 74% 42% 14% 2%
18 YATES Graeme 100% 100% 98% 83% 46% 6%
19 PHAM Thai-Long 100% 98% 84% 51% 17% 2%
20 JORGENSEN Kjirsten 100% 97% 79% 38% 9% 1%
21 JOHN Elsa 100% 97% 75% 33% 7% -
22 TAHA Raymond 100% 100% 95% 70% 23% 3% -
23 MINGO Joshua 100% 100% 93% 68% 28% 4% -
24 CLIPPARD Erik J. 100% 98% 84% 56% 24% 6% 1%
25 LEE Wilson 100% 43% 7% 1% - -
26 SOTO Michael 100% 98% 86% 56% 21% 3%
27 TELCI Arya 100% 88% 54% 20% 4% - -
28 STENZEL Henry 100% 48% 10% 1% - - -
29 VICKERY Lincoln 100% 100% 94% 71% 33% 6%
30 MIEST Davis 100% 94% 59% 20% 3% -
31 STONE Ken 100% 64% 22% 4% - -
32 WASHINGTON Benjamin 100% 97% 81% 48% 17% 3% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.