Premier Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LUO Alexander 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 76%
2 CHEN Evan 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 35%
3 MADRIGAL SALVAT Guillermo 100% 100% 99% 95% 79% 47% 14%
3 CHIANG William 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 24%
5 ARMSTRONG Payson 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 16%
6 CHEN Aiden 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 21%
7 KO Ethan 100% 99% 93% 72% 40% 13% 2%
8 FANG Charlie 100% 100% 98% 86% 56% 17%
9 NOOL Aaron 100% 100% 98% 87% 55% 17%
10 JIN Noah 100% 100% 98% 88% 64% 31% 7%
11 SCHLUBACH Jasper 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 4%
12 ZHENG Jasper 100% 100% 97% 83% 49% 13%
13 SON Isaac 100% 97% 81% 47% 15% 2%
14 GUJJA Rishabh 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 44% 5%
15 DAI Jason 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 30% 6%
16 IVANOV Andrew 100% 99% 94% 75% 43% 14% 2%
17 TANG Luke 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 36% 7%
18 HOREMIOTIS Bennett 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 38% 9%
19 ZHANG Jacob 100% 99% 92% 71% 40% 14% 2%
20 MASKIN Mikhail 100% 100% 97% 81% 47% 13%
21 JEONG Joseph 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 83% 40%
22 YOU Emmanuel 100% 97% 82% 51% 21% 5% -
23 LEE Asher 100% 98% 88% 62% 30% 8% 1%
24 GREGORY Milo 100% 79% 38% 9% 1% - -
25 CHEN Daniel 100% 100% 96% 80% 45% 11%
26 LI Jayden 100% 96% 75% 40% 12% 1%
27 LAI Jayden 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 45% 12%
28 CHEN Regis 100% 98% 87% 61% 29% 8% 1%
28 JAISING Kian 100% 99% 93% 74% 43% 15% 2%
30 LAW Benjamin 100% 98% 89% 65% 34% 10% 1%
31 YIN Xiangheng 100% 94% 70% 33% 7% -
32 LITVINOVSKY Benjamin 100% 99% 88% 59% 23% 4%
33 YU MAXIMILIAN 100% 94% 70% 36% 11% 2% -
34 DUDDA Kavin 100% 98% 83% 50% 15% 1%
35 KIM Brendan 100% 86% 52% 19% 4% - -
36 MAURAIS JP 100% 100% 99% 90% 66% 31% 7%
37 LUO Sebastian 100% 100% 95% 76% 43% 14% 2%
38 NG Remy 100% 98% 87% 58% 22% 4%
39 NOVAK Luke 100% 100% 96% 80% 49% 17% 3%
40 MILLER Brodrick 100% 92% 67% 33% 10% 2% -
41 LAI Jaxon 100% 99% 90% 64% 30% 8% 1%
42 ZHANG Renkui 100% 96% 75% 40% 13% 2% -
43 LEE Taeryum 100% 96% 76% 40% 10% 1%
44 GORE Noah 100% 92% 62% 24% 5% - -
45 KOVAC Blake 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 6%
46 ZHANG Leo 100% 89% 57% 22% 4% -
47 YANTZ Stosh 100% 69% 27% 6% 1% -
48 HWANG Chase 100% 98% 85% 59% 28% 8% 1%
49 KWON Ryan 100% 92% 66% 32% 10% 2% -
50 ZHU David 100% 94% 70% 32% 7% -
51 LI Sean 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 28% 5%
52 LIU FREDERICK 100% 100% 95% 76% 43% 14% 2%
53 TANG Jayce 100% 97% 81% 49% 18% 3% -
54 YADAV Aarav 100% 98% 86% 57% 24% 5% -
55 AU Wesley 100% 80% 40% 11% 2% - -
56 CARPENTER Taisei 100% 84% 48% 15% 2% -
57 BEZRODNOV Artemi 100% 99% 92% 66% 28% 6% -
58 FLANAGAN Ronan 100% 81% 43% 13% 2% -
59 LEE Jack 100% 93% 66% 28% 6% 1%
60 YAN Milan 100% 87% 52% 18% 3% -
61 CHARNA Luca 100% 77% 35% 9% 1% -
62 GOOD Adam 100% 73% 32% 8% 1% - -
63 HWANG Christopher 100% 83% 45% 15% 3% - -
64 YUAN Leonardo 100% 94% 72% 37% 11% 2% -
65 YANTZ Rhys 100% 96% 76% 43% 15% 2% -
66 SON Joshua 100% 95% 71% 33% 8% 1%
68 HERIGSTAD Daniel 100% 95% 77% 45% 17% 4% -
69 ZHU Kingsley 100% 96% 80% 50% 21% 5% 1%
70 EICHELBERGER Luke 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 3%
71 BHATT Shivam 100% 86% 49% 15% 2% - -
72 SALA John 100% 99% 90% 66% 34% 10% 1%
73 LIM Shane 100% 94% 72% 38% 13% 2% -
74 CAVALLARO Xavier 100% 95% 75% 43% 15% 3% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.