13th Annual Little Musketeers RYC & RJC

Junior Men's Épée

Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RONG Gordon	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	19%
2	HERBRANDSON Luke	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	28%
3	DENISON Declan	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
3	AVETISIAN Alexander	-	-	-	3%	16%	40%	40%
5	DONAHUE Lake	-	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
6	AVETISIAN Michael	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%
7	VOO Lucas	-	-	3%	16%	35%	35%	11%
8	BERTEL Florian	1%	5%	19%	34%	30%	11%	1%
9	LEUNG Dylan	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
10	MAXU Tiger	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
11	XUE Michael	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
12	WHITE Ryden	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
13	RONG Marcus	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	13%	2%
14	DENG Destin	-	5%	19%	34%	30%	11%	1%
15	LEE Jayden J.	-	-	4%	20%	44%	31%
16	ENG Kyler	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	1%
17	CHARETTE Alex	-	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
18	CHEONG Cameron	1%	8%	30%	40%	19%	3%
19	KIM Daniel	-	2%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
20	MENG Haoyi	-	6%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
21	KIM Remington	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	7%
22	WANG Lucas	2%	18%	39%	30%	9%	1%
23	PARRA Lucas	-	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
24	WAGY Zeke	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
25	FU Nolan	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
26	ROBINSON Dax	2%	12%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
27	WOO Lucas	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
28	SCHWARTZMAN Ethan	2%	13%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
29	FU Adrian	-	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
30	NGUYEN Ethan V.	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
31	OR Anson	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
32	AUYEUNG Aedan Ho lam	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
33	LIU Xuyao	1%	10%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
34	PORIKLI Sedat	1%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
35	NUGENT Curtis	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
36	CHIEN Ian	15%	37%	33%	13%	3%	-
37	SAMIMI Sina	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%
38	SHOURIE Neel	7%	29%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
39	SHETTY Rohit	30%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
40	KOU Mason	7%	36%	39%	15%	2%	-
41	SZETO Zachary	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-
43	MAI Sy	5%	34%	39%	18%	4%	-	-
44	FEKETE Jack Fekete	50%	37%	11%	2%	-	-	-
45	TOUSSAINT Wizard	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
46	SHOURIE Seth	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
47	HOBBS Fineas	75%	23%	2%	-	-	-	-
48	O’CONNOR Eve	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.