War of the Roses at NWFC (Open Epee, Y14 Epee)

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, August 10, 2019 at 9:00 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Beaverton, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LANGE Henry C.	-	-	4%	22%	45%	30%
2	LARSEN Samuel F.	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
3	JAKLITSCH Michael (Mike) T.	-	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
3	MCGAW Julian E.	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	15%
5	BENACK Steven M.	-	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	4%
6	FELKER Jared L.	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	30%	9%
7	FAUBERT Andy C.	-	-	1%	13%	49%	37%
8	MUNLIN Donovan	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
9	ZAFFT Maximo S.	-	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
10	NEAL Henry	2%	17%	41%	33%	7%	< 1%	-
11	FERGUSON Ross A.	-	4%	22%	41%	28%	5%
12	BENACK Mark	8%	34%	43%	15%	1%	-
13	YU Colin	-	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
14	SHOREY David P.	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
15	ROY Joseph T.	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
16	LEI Jacob	-	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%
17	BEITTEL Chloe F.	-	4%	17%	31%	30%	15%	3%
18	BODON Michele I.	-	8%	26%	37%	23%	6%
19	LEI Joshua	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%
20	CHU Audrey	-	4%	18%	34%	29%	11%	2%
21	DUCHOW Benjamin W.	-	7%	27%	41%	22%	2%
22	ZUHARS Renee A.	4%	20%	34%	29%	11%	2%
23	DUCHOW Henry M.	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
24	RUSSELL Renata	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
25	DUCHOW Matthew D.	-	4%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
26	HINMAN Andrew	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
27	COPELAN Maria A.	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
27	CHOI Isaac	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%	-
29	FERGUSON William	5%	31%	42%	19%	3%	-
30	PARKER Emilie Rose (Rosie)	1%	9%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
31	LAI Coby	11%	40%	40%	8%	1%	-
32	LLOYD Alex	7%	28%	37%	22%	5%	1%	-
33	BARNES Olivia R.	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	-
34	FLESHER Daniel J.	1%	13%	39%	36%	10%	1%	-
35	MCFARLAND Kai	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
36	SKIFFINGTON Sam	13%	42%	37%	8%	-	-
37	JACOBUS Curran	3%	16%	32%	31%	14%	3%	-
38	MCGAW Maia	10%	31%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
39	GULLO Kenji Y.	36%	49%	14%	1%	-	-
40	SHERTZ Kira E.	7%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-	-
41	DUAN Jenny S.	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%
42	PERRIGO Ben	5%	27%	41%	23%	3%	-
43	SCHMUGAR Brooke	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
44	GOLDEN Danielle	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
45	PROKOPEAS Grace	8%	26%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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