Ben Gutenberg Memorial SYC - RJCC

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, October 19, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Golisano Training Center at Nazareth University - Rochester, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MA Sophie	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	41%
2	KONG Mila W.	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
3	WONG Sydney	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
3	NING Miranda	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
5	FURMAN Maria	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	33%
6	XU Sunia (Tai Yang)	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	38%
7	MENG YIFAN	-	1%	5%	22%	44%	29%
8	HU Constance	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
9	HALE Avery	-	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	14%
10	KROPP Anne (Charlie)	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
11	ZHANG Michelle	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	21%
12	LI Nicole	19%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-
14	BOROTKO Katerina	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
15	SUN Nicole	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	7%	1%
16	HOWARD Katherine	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
17	LIANG Carina	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
18	JU Jennifer	7%	26%	38%	23%	6%	-
19	IVANOV Angela-Sophie	8%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
20	DONG Iris	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%
21	DING Iris Siyue	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
22	CORNFIELD Emily	5%	23%	35%	26%	9%	2%	-
23	TISHKOVA-ROBERTS Daria	22%	39%	28%	9%	2%	-	-
24	WANG Cecilia	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
25	DU Andria	3%	16%	32%	31%	14%	3%	-
26	LIU Chloe	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
27	HALE Reagan	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
28	YOUN Emily	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
29	FOMINA Polina	2%	13%	32%	35%	17%	3%
30	CHEN Allison	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
31	SONKU Mira	6%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%	-
32	ZHONG Evelyn	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
33	TAM Connie	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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