Troy Cullen Memorial Halloween Open (W&M)

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, November 8, 2025 at 1:00 PM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LANG Kurt 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 86% 35%
2 FONG Henry 100% 100% 86% 43% 10% 1%
3 REHDER Silas 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 6% -
3 MOORE Mary 100% 95% 73% 38% 11% 2% -
5 BOZARTH Alex 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 54% 15%
6 MILLER Luke 100% 100% 100% 98% 82% 38% 5%
7 PALPANDIAN Ilanchezhian 100% 95% 71% 32% 6% -
8 ABU-AJAJ Mohamed 100% 91% 60% 23% 4% -
9 TANG Justin 100% 100% 99% 91% 53%
10 HURST Palmer 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 67% 22%
11 MILLNER Brian 100% 100% 100% 97% 80% 36% 5%
12 LEWIS Owen 100% 100% 94% 63% 15%
13 KELLEY Nathan 100% 100% 99% 78% 31% 4%
14 REHDER Caleb 100% 100% 100% 97% 76% 30%
15 BADLANI Neel 100% 78% 37% 9% 1% - -
16 NANAYAKKARA Damin 100% 81% 41% 11% 1% - -
17 CARCATERRA Theodore 100% 96% 76% 40% 11% 1% -
18 PANE Patrick 100% 99% 89% 59% 22% 4% -
19 RAWSON Nicholas 100% 100% 99% 92% 58% 11%
20 CHAN Ian 100% 96% 59% 17% 2%
21 WASHINGTON Max 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 25%
22 KELLEY Cullan 100% 100% 99% 89% 60% 21% 3%
23 SWENSON Jason 100% 100% 100% 93% 47% 7% -
24 CASSIDY Leo 100% 94% 70% 33% 8% 1%
25 SHANKS Aidan T. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 67% 24%
26 NGUYEN Ethan 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 24% 4%
27 CASTRO Ryan 100% 99% 85% 52% 20% 4% -
28 HUANG Taohua 100% 100% 97% 86% 60% 27% 6%
30 FEAGIN Patrick 100% 99% 94% 74% 38% 9%
31 THOMPSON Grace 100% 97% 83% 53% 22% 5% -
32 GRAMLICH Bradley 100% 99% 88% 59% 22% 3% -
33 HUDSON Brian 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 51% 15%
34 THOMPSON Josh 100% 84% 39% 9% 1% - -
35 RHEINECKER Eleanora Grace 100% 93% 66% 29% 7% 1% -
36 HEATH Sarah 100% 100% 97% 42% 6% - -
37 NANAYAKKARA Sanuthi 100% 27% 3% - - -
38 MEYER Maeve 100% 94% 61% 14% 1%
39 MUNDAY Arlie 100% 99% 92% 66% 27% 3% -
40 DUDEK Nicholas 100% 100% 98% 87% 61% 28% 6%
41 IYER Matthias 100% 84% 46% 14% 2% - -
41 LANIER Sawyer 100% 62% 19% 2% - - -
43 CRAMER Jay 100% 36% 5% - -
44 JORDAN Olivia 100% 90% 58% 23% 4% - -
45 JOHNSTON Ashlyn 100% 92% 65% 30% 8% 1%
45 GRIFFITH Riley 100% 96% 60% 18% 2% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.