GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Junior Women's Foil

Saturday, November 8, 2025 at 3:30 PM

MSA Fieldhouse - GRAND RAPIDS, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MUMMANENI Samyuta	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
2	SONG Jenna	-	-	6%	24%	43%	26%
3	HUSSIAN Annabelle	-	2%	15%	40%	36%	7%
3	AADHI Hansika	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
5	URDANETA LARGURA Sylvia	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
6	KNAPP Isabella	2%	15%	36%	36%	12%
7	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	-	5%	24%	45%	26%
8	OS Danielle	-	5%	25%	43%	24%	3%
9	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	21%
10	SALMI-BYDALEK Ada	-	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	-
11	ZOLDAN Gweniveve A.	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	17%
12	SHUSTA Lily	1%	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%
13	DIRKES Catherine	1%	6%	23%	36%	26%	7%
14	LIN Kenzie	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	22%	3%
15	BLAKEY Heaven	1%	7%	27%	40%	21%	4%
16	NAFSOU Ava	11%	37%	37%	14%	2%	-
17	TAN Dorathy	-	1%	6%	25%	45%	24%
18	YU Angela	27%	42%	24%	7%	1%	-
19	XIONG Isabel	-	1%	9%	28%	39%	21%	2%
20	GOLLNICK Mira	-	2%	15%	37%	35%	11%
21	KHAN Leena	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
22	TAYLOR-OSBORN Nadia	6%	28%	40%	21%	4%	-
23	HARRIS Parker	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
24	MORSE Katherine	1%	14%	38%	34%	12%	1%
25	CHOI JULIE	4%	23%	39%	27%	6%
26	CAMPBELL June	-	6%	26%	40%	24%	5%
27	SONG Erin	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
28	DHALIWAL Seerat	3%	22%	42%	27%	6%	-
28	LEGGETT Emilia	7%	38%	39%	15%	2%	-
30	WOERTER Therese-Margaret	13%	36%	34%	15%	3%	-
31	KOSCIK-AQUINO Emily	14%	43%	33%	9%	1%	-
32	LEMASTERS Elise M.	30%	43%	22%	5%	-
33	FECHER Lily	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
34	COLLINS Anna	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
35	CHUNG Stella	2%	29%	42%	21%	5%	-
36	YARLAGADDA Smaya	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
37	SUN Yixuan	30%	44%	21%	4%	-	-	-
38	WANG Xiaolan	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%
39	LIN Aria	85%	14%	1%	-	-	-
40	VINS Katherine	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
41	REDEMANN Reagan	24%	46%	24%	5%	1%	-	-
42	KRONZER Sophia	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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