Thanksgiving Throwdown

Unrated Mixed Foil

Saturday, November 15, 2025 at 3:00 PM

Richmond Fencing Club - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TINGLE Byrd 100% 100% 94% 70% 30% 5%
2 MCCREADY-FLORA Felicity 100% 100% 99% 89% 56% 15%
3 BLEVINS Carolyn 100% 90% 58% 22% 5% - < 1%
3 MITCHELL Robert 100% 77% 30% 4% - < 1%
5 TERPENNING Sarah 100% 100% 99% 87% 51% 12% 1%
6 ALLEN Lily 100% 72% 30% 6% 1% -
7 HANDLER Joshua 100% 100% 99% 91% 61% 18% 2%
8 ROUNTREE Andrew 100% 99% 90% 60% 19% -
9 COLBY Jim 100% 77% 35% 7% 1% -
10 VIEZCA Olivia 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 6%
11 BRUTON Vinton 100% 94% 69% 32% 7% -
12 SMITH IV Edward (Ted) A. 100% 94% 65% 24% 4% -
13 DILLENBACK Isaiah 100% 100% 99% 86% 42% 9% 1%
14 SIMMONS Noah 100% 100% 100% 98% 77% 31%
15 BAMZAI Shaila 100% 94% 67% 28% 6% -
16 HALL Joshua 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 43%
17 RAWLS Henry 100% 100% 96% 72% 30% 5% -
18 SCHARTZ James 100% 100% 96% 76% 37% 8%
19 IRWIN JR Richard 100% 96% 55% 14% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.