2025 TCFC November Challenges

E & Under Mixed Épée

Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 12:30 PM

TCFC - St. Paul, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 RUBIN Joshua 100% 98% 81% 42% 8%
2 MIEST Davis 100% 91% 58% 22% 4% -
3 SCHLIEP Anna 100% 86% 44% 11% 1%
3 LEE Wilson 100% 83% 39% 7%
5 JORGENSEN Rebekah 100% 93% 64% 26% 6% -
6 CAVEN Emerald 100% 81% 42% 13% 2% -
7 LI Ziyue 100% 100% 99% 90% 60% 19%
8 CLIPPARD Erik J. 100% 100% 97% 82% 47% 12%
9 NOONEY Tatum 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 24%
10 SANFORD Wesley 100% 99% 85% 39%
11 STENZEL Henry 100% 90% 58% 22% 4% -
12 MINGO Ron 100% 94% 66% 26% 4%
13 HICKNER Gabe 100% 99% 88% 51% 13% 1%
14 WILLER Ryan 100% 99% 84% 49% 15% 2%
15 SVOBODA Alex 100% 96% 76% 38% 8%
17 JOHN Elsa 100% 71% 22% 1%
18 CAVEN Henry 100% 97% 77% 38% 8%
19 BUENAFLOR Jeffrey 100% 99% 91% 62% 22% 2%
20 STONE Ken 100% 89% 52% 13%
21 PONGRATZ Kai 100% 100% 97% 83% 51% 15%
23 UNGEMAH Edison 100% 84% 24% 3% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.