Nick Itkin Cup SYC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Friday, December 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Palm Springs Convention Center - Palm Springs, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Cindy	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
2	SHI Maxine	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	15%
3	WANG Makayla	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%
3	CHENG Zijuan "Grace"	-	-	5%	23%	43%	27%
5	CHENG Anna	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
6	HWANG Sophie	-	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
7	CORD Sophia	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
8	CONG Catherine	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%
9	HU Ashley	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
10	FAN Tina	-	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	7%
11	ASHIKHMINA Agniya	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	16%	2%
12	TAN Angela	-	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
13	DUDNICK Caitlin	-	-	2%	12%	35%	40%	11%
14	NARRELL Olive	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
15	CUI Andrea	11%	40%	35%	12%	2%	-
16	GUERVILLE Angelique	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
17	LIN Rachel	-	1%	5%	23%	42%	29%
18	TABANCAY Ava	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
19	BAEK Aileen	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
20	SUTHERLAND Sadie	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
21	CERVERA Zoe	11%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-
22	TSE Lavine	-	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%
23	MENDOZA SAB	2%	13%	31%	35%	16%	3%	-
24	ROBBINS Lydia	2%	17%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
25	YU Sydney	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
26	TRAN Esme	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
27	ZHAO Audrey	18%	41%	30%	10%	1%	-
28	HAN yujie	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-	-
29	LUC Christabel	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%
30	FISCHER Luna	5%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%
31	CHANG Jillian	9%	37%	36%	14%	3%	-	-
32	WANG Jennifer	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
33	WHITE CAREY Alberta	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
34	WONG Chloe	18%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
35	RO Manhattan	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
36	ZHOU Kelsey	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
37	YANG annie	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
38	LOMOTAN Audrey	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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