James Madison University Open (at Richmond Fencing Club)

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, December 6, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Richmond Fencing Club - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 BAYUS Oliver 100% 99% 86% 49% 14% 1%
2 REHDER Silas 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 59% 14%
3 HAYES Nathan P. 100% 99% 91% 64% 26% 4%
3 WU Jiachen 100% 99% 85% 51% 18% 3% -
5 WU Shaochi 100% 100% 98% 85% 54% 18% 2%
6 LUNDEN Espen 100% 97% 78% 43% 13% 2% -
7 RAWSON Nicholas 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 28%
8 JARRATT Isaac 100% 98% 87% 58% 24% 5% -
9 SINGH Meet 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 43% 11%
10 NANAYAKKARA Damin 100% 100% 97% 78% 34%
11 BOZARTH Alex 100% 100% 100% 98% 76% 15%
12 QU RuiTing 100% 94% 68% 31% 8% 1%
13 REHDER Caleb 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 28%
14 GUO Benjamin 100% 97% 78% 37% 7%
15 GRAMLICH Bradley 100% 99% 91% 63% 24% 3%
16 ABU-AJAJ Mohamed 100% 98% 84% 52% 19% 4% -
17 MOORE Mary 100% 100% 96% 75% 37% 8%
18 KARASICK Andrew 100% 99% 86% 48% 11%
18 SIMS Martin L. 100% 100% 94% 65% 15% 1%
20 CAVE Rylan 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 24%
21 GALIOTE James 100% 74% 32% 8% 1% -
22 AMES Jeremy 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 22%
23 HURST Palmer 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 71%
24 CHONG Eden 100% 99% 84% 26% 2% -
25 NANAYAKKARA Sanuthi 100% 66% 23% 4% - -
26 RAGSDALE Lillian 100% 78% 39% 11% 1% -
27 PETROVSKI Kiril 100% 68% 26% 6% 1% - -
28 SMITHSON Matthew 100% 48% 10% 1% -
29 CAMPBELL Paul 100% 100% 96% 78% 42% 10%
30 HALES Adam 100% 97% 79% 44% 13% 2%
31 SOUTHWORTH Connor 100% 99% 91% 66% 32% 8% 1%
32 MARCUS Jonah 100% 99% 91% 64% 25% 3%
33 STRAFFORD Andrew 100% 99% 88% 55% 18% 2%
34 SWENSON Jason 100% 93% 57% 18% 2%
35 HUANG Taohua 100% 92% 60% 22% 4% -
36 BADLANI Neel 100% 97% 79% 44% 13% 2%
37 VILLAVICENCIO Fiorella 100% 72% 21% 2% - -
38 YANG Chuhan 100% 99% 85% 50% 14% 1%
39 COTHRAN Nicholas 100% 99% 91% 67% 32% 7%
40 GAGNON Charles 100% 95% 71% 33% 9% 1% -
41 GUARDIOLA JR Oscar 100% 97% 81% 48% 17% 3% -
42 AKKALE Reyhan 100% 76% 37% 11% 2% - -
43 CRAMER Jay 100% 52% 7% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.