James Madison University Open (at Richmond Fencing Club)

Div III Mixed Foil

Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Richmond Fencing Club - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PRICE Owen	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
2	SKOLNICK Michael W.	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	22%
3	NANAYAKKARA Dinuth	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
3	CHANG Zane	3%	20%	40%	28%	8%	1%
5	CHANG Xavier	-	-	1%	16%	44%	32%	6%
6	HAYES Nathan P.	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
7	BORAN Connor	1%	6%	24%	40%	26%	4%
8	AN Jasmine N.	9%	31%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
9	FAYVUSOVICH Emmanual	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
10	SOPHRONIUS Jeddie	-	-	2%	16%	44%	37%
11	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	-	1%	9%	30%	43%	17%
12	SINGH Meet	1%	6%	20%	32%	27%	11%	2%
13	MITCHELL Robert	7%	30%	37%	21%	5%	1%	-
14	ROUNTREE Andrew	-	5%	32%	43%	18%	1%
15	IVATURI Sivakrishna Nikhil	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	30%	9%
16	GUARDIOLA Emily	3%	18%	37%	30%	10%	1%	-
17	SIMANDJUNTAK Joshua	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
18	CONANT Aidan	-	3%	12%	27%	33%	20%	5%
19	SCHICKEL Juliana	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
20	JONES Zamauri	1%	8%	26%	38%	24%	4%
21	SHEA Aleksander	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
21	TINGLE Byrd	-	4%	31%	45%	19%	2%
23	TANG Justin	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	7%
24	CICCHI Nicolas	-	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
25	LAU-ALLEN Macy	10%	38%	39%	11%	1%	-
26	YEE Calvin	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
27	TOLENTINO SR. Francis	-	1%	4%	15%	32%	34%	14%
28	SOTO Alejandro	1%	6%	25%	40%	23%	5%	-
29	SMITH IV Edward (Ted) A.	9%	46%	35%	9%	1%	-
30	LI Happy	4%	19%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
31	BLEVINS Carolyn	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-	-
32	SIMANJUNTAK Jocelyn	7%	25%	34%	23%	9%	2%	-
33	JACOFF Amelia	28%	46%	23%	3%	-	-
34	KRUPICKA Evelyn	1%	12%	37%	39%	10%	-
35	HAVERSON Rana	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-	-
36	TRAN Katarina	30%	49%	19%	2%	-	-
37	DILLENBACK Isaiah	< 1%	6%	29%	45%	17%	2%
37	HALL Joshua	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
39	REARDON Caleb	30%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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