Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Friday, December 19, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Round Rock Sports Center - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 DUFF Michael 100% 100% 100% 95% 73% 26%
2 LU Simon 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 88% 51%
3 SU Eric 100% 100% 100% 96% 75% 30%
3 CAO HAOTIAN 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 44%
5 CHEN Harrison 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 22% 3%
6 KUANG Cyrus 100% 100% 99% 95% 79% 47% 14%
7 YE Aaron 100% 100% 97% 78% 36% 4%
8 SALMAN Ibrahim 100% 100% 99% 90% 58% 16%
9 BALAGOPAL Aditya 100% 99% 92% 69% 35% 9% 1%
10 DEGUZMAN Miguel Javier 100% 99% 88% 55% 19% 3%
11 WU Allen 100% 99% 85% 48% 13% 1%
12 ZHANG Caleb 100% 100% 97% 80% 44% 11%
13 DING Orlando 100% 100% 98% 85% 55% 20% 2%
14 PARK Jayden 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 33%
15 CHOI Brayden Yui Chit 100% 98% 87% 61% 29% 8% 1%
16 QIAO Jason 100% 99% 94% 74% 41% 12% 1%
17 KELLY Collin 100% 100% 97% 84% 56% 23% 4%
17 OH Caleb 100% 98% 85% 57% 25% 6% 1%
19 TIAGI Ronald 100% 100% 98% 81% 40% 8%
20 GHIM Ethan 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 21% 3%
21 NAKAMURA Haruki 100% 96% 79% 45% 16% 3% -
22 WILLIS-STEED Sacha 100% 96% 70% 29% 6% -
23 VADLAMANI Anirudh Dhir 100% 100% 97% 78% 40% 8%
24 CHIDAMBARAM Nivedh 100% 94% 63% 22% 3% -
25 GONG Johnny 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 6% 1%
26 SHI Mark 100% 87% 53% 20% 4% - -
27 KIM Christopher 100% 84% 50% 19% 4% - -
28 JAIN Aarambh 100% 98% 86% 54% 21% 4% -
29 GUO Aiden 100% 99% 92% 67% 31% 7% 1%
30 KWON Joon 100% 98% 80% 41% 11% 1%
31 LEE Seojun 100% 88% 49% 12% 1% -
32 JIANG Hardy 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 12% 2%
33 LIANG Henry 100% 97% 76% 35% 7% -
34 POLES Lucas 100% 59% 18% 3% - - -
35 LIN Rongcheng Noah 100% 94% 66% 29% 7% 1% -
35 YUEN Travis 100% 90% 61% 26% 6% 1% -
37 GUPTA Abir 100% 31% 4% - - -
38 KHAN Zorayz 100% 44% 8% 1% - -
39 SAMPAT Arjun 100% 49% 9% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.