San Diego Senior Cup #2

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM

LionHeart Fencing Academy - San Diego, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LEE Royce	-	2%	17%	45%	36%
2	WEI Zikun	-	-	-	-	5%	95%
3	HAU Pak-Kei	-	3%	26%	49%	21%
3	FIECHTNER Thomas A.	-	2%	17%	49%	33%
5	WILKENS Zach Q.	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
6	NORTON Henry	1%	10%	37%	42%	11%
7	LIANG Donny	-	2%	14%	45%	38%	1%
8	KURITZ Marc M.	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
9	LIANG Dong	29%	45%	22%	4%	-
10	KNIGHT Alex	3%	35%	47%	14%	1%
11	ROBITZSKI Daniel A.	-	1%	13%	48%	37%
12	HILLSTROM Nathan	-	4%	24%	50%	21%
13	PICKETT Alexander	46%	43%	11%	1%	-
14	SWANSON Miles	27%	45%	23%	4%	-	-
15	NUGENT Curtis	10%	37%	39%	12%	1%	-
16	LEE Sang	25%	46%	24%	4%	-
17	KREIDL Attila N.	34%	44%	19%	3%	-
18	WANG Dylan	13%	42%	38%	7%	-
18	GAYLORD Ronan	23%	50%	23%	4%	-
20	HEWITT Frank F.	2%	16%	40%	35%	7%
21	LUNDE Drew	2%	17%	43%	32%	6%
22	CHAO Warren	-	4%	22%	47%	27%	1%
23	DU Yiwei	1%	12%	39%	38%	11%
24	POUND David	12%	37%	37%	13%	1%
24	CHHOKAR Inder	3%	37%	45%	13%	1%
26	SETTE Alessandro	-	7%	34%	44%	15%
27	YI David	10%	35%	39%	15%	1%
28	CREASON Nicholas	38%	47%	13%	1%	-
29	SMITH Mason	82%	17%	1%	-	-
29	WEINBERG Ron	5%	26%	42%	23%	3%
31	HORN Evans	19%	45%	30%	6%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.