Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Friday, December 26, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CAO Aaron	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
2	HUANG Dalynn	-	-	-	1%	11%	41%	46%
3	ZHANG Eric	-	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
3	CHEN Keegan	-	1%	11%	32%	40%	16%
5	LIN Lucas	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
6	PARK Joshua	-	-	1%	7%	28%	46%	18%
7	LU Ethan	-	5%	21%	36%	27%	8%	1%
8	GENG Vincent	-	1%	8%	23%	37%	26%	5%
9	YU Oliver	-	-	2%	12%	32%	39%	15%
10	FANG Lionel	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
11	NG Harry	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
12	LI Mason	1%	5%	20%	34%	29%	10%	1%
13	MOSAMEH Faraj	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
14	YANG Luca	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
15	JAZWINSKI Archer	4%	22%	40%	26%	7%	1%
16	HAN Jayden	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	6%
17	HUANG Owen	-	5%	19%	36%	31%	9%
18	SUN Zedong Eric	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
19	ZHANG Bryson	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%
20	SU Sean	-	1%	5%	24%	43%	27%
21	HO Marcus	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	13%	2%
22	LIU Benji	-	3%	17%	35%	31%	11%	1%
23	CHEN Jesse	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	11%	1%
23	LIANG Anker	1%	13%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
25	SHOU William	23%	45%	25%	6%	1%	-
26	HAN Owen	6%	31%	38%	20%	5%	-	-
27	LIU Jordan	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
28	LIU Yuyang	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%	1%
29	WANG Eason	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
30	CHOI Christian	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
31	ZHANG Tingyu	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
32	MORONES Amisael	21%	46%	26%	6%	1%	-	-
33	LAUX Carter	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
34	NACU Andre	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
35	ALLEN Ashton	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
36	CREANGA Matthew	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
37	WOOD Theodore	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-
38	WOOD Oliver	24%	40%	26%	9%	1%	-	-
39	NIU Charlie	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
40	GOEL Sanav	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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