Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div II Women's Foil

Friday, January 2, 2026 at 8:30 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 SNYDERS Evelyn 100% 99% 90% 64% 26% 4%
2 NUNLEY Victoria 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 52%
3 MOORE Addisyn 100% 100% 100% 95% 76% 37% 7%
3 WU Lorena 100% 96% 75% 38% 10% 1%
5 SELSER Ella 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 25%
6 CAVANAGH Emma 100% 100% 95% 70% 32% 7% -
7 CHENG Isa 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 47%
8 UHRICH Reese 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 37% 8%
9 IBRAHIM Yara 100% 98% 83% 50% 16% 2%
10 LEE isabella 100% 100% 98% 81% 45% 13% 1%
11 JAIN Dia 100% 94% 70% 35% 11% 2% -
12 BERGMANN Beatrix 100% 97% 83% 52% 21% 4% -
13 TOMASI Samantha 100% 95% 72% 34% 8% 1%
14 SOMAN Indraa 100% 98% 88% 62% 29% 7% 1%
15 JOHNSON Elizabeth 100% 32% 4% - - - -
16 LUEKEN Adelina 100% 87% 55% 22% 5% 1% -
17 ZHANG Tingyun (Linda) 100% 100% 96% 74% 37% 9% 1%
18 LU Zoe 100% 99% 88% 62% 29% 8% 1%
19 CROWE Talia 100% 72% 30% 7% 1% -
20 JOSEPH Rachel 100% 91% 46% 12% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.