Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Friday, January 2, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ZHANG Manyao - 1% 6% 20% 34% 29% 10%
2 ARANGO Ivanna - 2% 9% 25% 35% 23% 6%
3 CHANG Kelly - 1% 7% 22% 34% 27% 8%
3 RADELL Zoe - 4% 18% 33% 30% 13% 2%
5 YAO Elizabeth - 1% 6% 20% 34% 29% 9%
6 VU Claire - 1% 7% 21% 35% 28% 8%
7 MAZZURCO Marin 2% 11% 27% 33% 21% 7% 1%
8 NORRIS Phoebe 4% 18% 33% 29% 14% 3% -
9 SADHU Mira 8% 27% 34% 22% 7% 1% -
10 HONG Eden - 4% 15% 30% 31% 17% 3%
11 CHEN Jolene 1% 10% 25% 32% 23% 8% 1%
12 PAVONY Arya 24% 39% 26% 9% 2% - -
13 CHANG Eleanor - 1% 7% 21% 34% 28% 9%
14 MAZZURCO Sydney 4% 20% 35% 29% 11% 2% -
15 JEON Karis 8% 28% 35% 21% 7% 1% -
16 JAVIER Jordan 16% 36% 31% 14% 3% - -
17 SUN claire 2% 14% 30% 32% 17% 4% -
18 LIN Martina 6% 23% 34% 25% 10% 2% -
19 GREENHOUSE Harper - 1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 7%
20 WANG Emily 1% 5% 17% 31% 29% 14% 3%
21 D'AMELJ Ludovica 3% 16% 32% 30% 15% 4% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.